Stars bright, BJP loses bite

Astrologer Laxman Das Madan had given heart to many in the BJP after the parliamentary poll defeat by sticking his neck out and predicting t...

Astrologer Laxman Das Madan had given heart to many in the BJP after the parliamentary poll defeat by sticking his neck out and predicting that the BJP8217;s fortunes would look up from September 26 and that the UPA Government would receive a heavy blow around that time. Madan8217;s prophecy was taken seriously since he was spot on with his two earlier political forecasts this year. He predicted the defeat of the NDA in the general election and that Sonia Gandhi would not become prime minister even though the UPA would gain a majority in Parliament. But Madan8217;s third prophecy has turned out to be a damp squib.

The Maharashtra Assembly points to the opposite of Madan8217;s prophecy. But the soothsayer does not feel there is any fault with the stars or with his reading of them. He puts the blame squarely on the BJP itself. Madan says the planets can only indicate a favourable period in a person8217;s horoscope, but it is up to a human being to seize the advantage. Madan lists three major human errors which led to the BJP defeat in Maharashtra. Atal Behari Vajpayee8217;s failure to campaign in Vidarbha, Pramod Mahajan8217;s cold-shouldering of Uma Bharati8217;s Tiranga Yatra in the state, and the frittering away of the energies of over a 100 MPs in the Savarkar protest in the Andamans rather than utilisation of their services for the campaign. The only silverlining in the gloomy picture for the party is that Madan claims that the period from November 2 to December 16 is auspicious for Vajpayee personally.

ORF8217;s photo album

The Observer Research Foundation is a think-tank that aspires to influence government policy and the international perception of India, in politics, government, security and the economy. With the backing of India8217;s largest business house, Reliance, ORF has no shortage of funds. Many high-profile former bureaucrats, foreign policy experts and strategic analysts, including M Rasgotra, P N Dhar, Y K Alagh, M Hamid Ansari, Akbar Zaidi and Vice-Admiral K K Nayyar, have been associated with the foundation, which has published their research. The ORF has even entered into a partnership with the prestigious Brookings Institution for research and fund raising.

But if the ORF wants to be taken seriously in academic circles, it should consider changing the thrust of its glossy brochure, which focuses unabashedly on its founder chairman R K Mishra rather than its aims and achievements. Mishra, after all, is known more as a journalist with a remarkable ability to be on the right side of whichever government is in power than for his scholarship. The 12-page ORF brochure carries a dozen photographs of Mishra.

De facto to de jure

Even before the Maharashtra poll results, M Venkaiah Naidu was conscious that his days as BJP president were numbered and his authority was being eroded. L K Advani had virtually taken control of party affairs. All the same when the axe finally fell, Naidu8212;like his two predecessors in office Jana Krishnamurthi and Bangaru Laxman8212;felt exploited and discarded. A Naidu supporter grumbled that none of the three party presidents from the south had been allowed to complete a full term. For that matter even north Indian party presidents like Kushabhau Thakre and Murli Manohar Joshi felt they had been done down and not given a second term.

The truth is that the BJP organisation for the last quarter century has been largely Advani-centric. Advani was himself not in favour of formally taking over the reins of the party at this critical juncture, with the BJP likely to face a rout in several forthcoming assembly polls. Advani wanted to install a surrogate president, but there was no agreement within the party or the RSS on any other name.

Striking distance

Sharad Pawar has reason to dig in his heels and insist that if the next chief minister of Maharashtra is not from the NCP, he gets a plum ministerial portfolio in Delhi as compensation. It is not just that his party won two more assembly seats than the Congress, the NCP also has a far more impressive strike rate. The NCP won 57 per cent of the seats it contested, whereas the Congress has a victory ratio of only 43 per cent. The Congress contested 157 seats compared to the NCP8217;s 124.

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Pramod Mahajan can also justifiably argue that it is unfair that he has to shoulder the entire blame for the BJP8217;s Maharashtra defeat. The BJP won 48 per cent of the seats it contested, whereas the Shiv Sena, which got the lion8217;s share of the assembly seats in the partnership, had a very poor strike rate of 38 per cent. The irony is that just over a year ago, the NCP was keen on a tie-up with the BJP, and the latter turned down the offer.