Sowing concern

This projection had led the Union Agriculture Ministry to meet senior officials of major wheat-growing states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra to review wheat prospects in the ongoing Rabi season. Subsequently, it had declared that the prospects in terms of area coverage and likely production were 8220;satisfactory8221;.

However, the Government did acknowledge the reduction in wheat area in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, attributing it to moisture stress and initial higher temperatures at Gwalior, Rewa, Sagar divisions MP, Bundelkhand region UP, and in the rain-fed areas of Rajasthan.

Besides, the wheat sowing in these states was delayed by the late start of cane crushing in sugar mills, which did not free the sugarcane fields for wheat sowing, which is expected to adversely affect the productivity in these regions.

The Government8217;s hopes are now pinned on Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Bihar, which according to a Agriculture Ministry press release, have reported coverage of 2 lakh hectares8212;more area under wheat this season as compared to 2006-07, in response to the hike in wheat8217;s minimum support price MSP this year. What8217;s worrying is that the substantial MSP hike from Rs 750 a quintal to Rs 1,000 has not really translated into increase in wheat acreage.

The Government is putting up a brave front, with Minister of Agriculture Sharad Pawar saying that he is confident of achieving the targeted production of 75.5 million tonnes this year provided 8220;the current weather conditions continue favourably8221;.

However, the wheat sowing in progress in the country belies this optimism. At the end of last week, wheat coverage stood at 20.6 million hectares as against 23.4 million hectares during the corresponding period last year, which is a drop of about 12 per cent. The coverage is lagging far behind in states like Uttar Pradesh -16.43 per cent, Madhya Pradesh -19.94 per cent, Rajasthan -10.37 per cent, Gujarat -11.28 per cent, Bihar -18.44 per cent and Maharashtra -13.90 per cent.

This comes in the backdrop of further hardening of global wheat prices. When the Prime Minister addressed the NDC to finalise the 11th plan on December 19, he indicated the hardening of food prices and asked for managing food supplies in the country in a structured manner. 8220;Global trends in food production and prices, and our own patterns of consumption are going to put increasing pressure on both the availability and prices of basic food items. We probably need to realise that we are going to be importers of some food items for many years and take steps to manage this in a structured manner,8221; he had said.

The country has imported wheat for the second year in a row to meet the domestic demand, with the Government already facing the heat of rising global wheat prices. This is indicated in the last wheat import tender by the Government, where the global traders have offered to deliver wheat at an exorbitant price of 460-580 per tonne, which translates into more than an average of Rs 2,000 per quintal for imported wheat8212;twice the hiked MSP.

While the International Grain Council has projected a rise in global wheat production this year as against the drop of production last year, wheat prices are going to toughen, which may mean hardships for domestic consumers if India fails to meet its target of 75.5 million tonnes.