Sonia146;s two-man barmy

Ensonced in her ivory tower 8212; 10 Janpath 8212; Sonia Gandhi presides over the destiny of party and, via proxy, country. Her room at the Congress HQ close by, usually locked, is opened only when she comes for the monthly visit.

Why doesn8217;t she come out and, well, mingle with her people, even when there are no sun-guns and cameras flashing? A senior cabinet minister has a tongue-in-cheek explanation: 8216;8216;The mystique would last till she is confined to the ivory tower.8217;8217;

This splendid isolation being central to Sonia8217;s strategy, the coterie around her becomes that much more important. It tells her what it thinks she wants to hear. It plays politics by rules that may be well past their 8216;8216;use by8217;8217; date. In being her eyes and ears, it exercises her authority too. Trained and skilled in shadow-warfare, the Congress8217; inner ring is too busy with oneupmanship to bother with the politics outside.

SONIA8217;S political secretary Ahmed Patel and party general secretary Ambika Soni are great survivors. Having edged out the rest, they8217;re left with each other. The balance keeps shifting 8212; sometimes in favour of Patel, sometimes towards Soni. According to a party leader: 8216;8216;They are like two ends of a seesaw. If one goes up, the other comes down.8217;8217;

After a spell of Patel-domination, it is Ambika whose influence is on the rise. Though Patel excels in staying low profile, he cannot wash his hands of Goa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Kerala, locations for five successive self-goals by the Congress.

8216;8216;Dekhna mera kahin naam nahin aaye See, my name does not crop up anywhere,8217;8217; Patel is known to stress to party functionaries before assigning them a task. Much to his dismay 8212; and behind his back 8212; Patel now has party leaders pointing fingers at him.

In Goa, the Congress ended up having to sack its own government. In the short term, the party has 8216;8216;gained power8217;8217; in Bihar through president8217;s rule. But it has sown seeds of mistrust in the mind of RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav.

Jharkhand and Goa have done what the entire Sangh Parivar could not have 8212; cracked Sonia8217;s Teflon image. Now the search is on for scapegoats.

THERE8217;S a pitfall a minute. Take Haryana 8212; which saw open revolt and boycott of the legislative party leader8217;s election by state unit president Bhajan Lal. Sonia brokered an uneasy peace, but few are convinced. With Lal around as a parallel centre of power, Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda needs no opposition.

If Haryana is a case of excessive indulgence, Kerala is one of zero tolerance. Sonia has gone out of her way to pamper Lal. In Kerala, the 8216;8216;I8217;8217; and 8216;8216;A8217;8217; factions have existed for decades, standing for K. Karunakaran and A.K. Antony. Now Karunakaran is persona non grata.

8216;8216;We will not tolerate indiscipline,8217;8217; thunders Patel, in charge of Kerala. But the same hand that strikes at former PCC chief K. Muraleedharan Karunakaran8217;s son, does not touch Bhajan Lal.

The high command has chosen to experiment with disciplinary action in Kerala, where a swing of even one per cent can give the rival Left-led alliance a landslide victory.

SONIA sided with the anti-Vilasrao Deshmukh lobby when it used the Mumbai slum demolitions to attack the Maharashtra chief minister. She endorsed the line pushed by general secretary Margaret Alva, state president Prabha Rau and Mumbai Congress president Gurudas Kamat.

Dissidence is building up against Uttar Pradesh unit chief Salman Khurshid, who had been brought in with many expectations. Congress Lok Sabha members from the state are muttering under their breath.

In Karnataka, Chief Minister Dharam Singh is ill at ease with PCC president B. Janardana Poojary 8212; a confidant of former chief minister S.M. Krishna. Singh wants Poojary replaced by K.H. Vishwanath.

It is Amarinder Singh versus Rajinder Kaur Bhattal plus Jagmeet Brar in Punjab, Ashok Gehlot versus PCC chief Narain Singh in Rajasthan, Shiela Diskhit versus Jagdish Tytler plus Subhash Chopra in Delhi, Virbhadra Singh versus Vidya Stokes in Himachal Pradesh, N.D. Tiwari versus Harish Rawat in Uttaranchal, Ajit Jogi versus Motilal Vora in Chhattisgarh.

Madhya Pradesh is more complicated. PCC president Subhash Yadav, leader of opposition Yamuna Devi, AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh and HRD Minister Arjun Singh are all at loggerheads.

AMID this mess, the party is anxiously waiting for the Congress Working Committee meeting, likely to take place in Parliament8217;s budget session recess. The blame game over Jharkhand, Bihar and Goa should dominate the CWC.

Knives are already out for Arjun for his failure to read the winds in Bihar and Jharkhand. Priyaranjan Dasmunshi is being blamed for the unseemly hurry with which Pratapsinh Rane and Shibu Soren were sworn in in Panjim and Ranchi. Home Minister Shivraj Patil is credited with the constant feedback to Sonia that Soren had a majority. Will all this manifest itself in a ministerial reshuffle?

To top it all, there8217;s a generational problem. The 50 somethings who gave the party a creditable comeback victory in 2004 are sulking, feeling underused and marginalised. They point fingers at tired but refusing to be retired drawing room stratgeists. The invisible finger, however, points in the direction of a particular bungalow on Janpath.

Kerala8217;s
Suicide Squad

Karunakaran8217;s confidants insist he won8217;t be satisfied with a governor8217;s job and with sinecures for his children

THE last man who would really want the Congress to split in Kerala may be the one appearing to plump for it 8212; K. Karunakaran. He is at it only because there couldn8217;t be a better time to grab some relevance for his now rag-tag 8216;8216;I8217;8217; faction.

The panchayat polls are six months away, and it is only a year to the assembly election. The first will be the Congress8217;s only chance to get back some respect after the Left had smashed it in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll, taking 19 of 20 seats 8212; the remaining one going to the NDA.

The Congress needs a good panchayat election. Naturally, this is the time Karunakaran expects to get the AICC to bend backwards to accommodate his factional circus.

The funny thing is, it8217;s not even a scramble for power. Historically, Kerala doesn8217;t re-elect governments. It would be far fetched to expect the lacklustre Oommen Chandy government to turn the trend.

The only concrete demand Karunakaran could hold up was organisational polls, and the AICC had immediately agreed. But even his factotums admit their 8216;8216;I8217;8217; group hardly has any chance of 8216;8216;capturing the KPCC8217;8217;.

CONTRARY to speculation, 8216;8216;I8217;8217; group insiders say Karunakaran is unlikely to settle for a governor8217;s job, with suitable posts for son K. Muralidharan and daughter Padmaja Venugopal.

There is nothing substantial the Congress can offer them anyway 8212; no Rajya Sabha seats are vacant, no plum portfolio in the state cabinet is open. Nothing Karunakaran would consider safe and substantial enough for his children.

Neither of them can hope to pull the faction on their own 8212; or run the breakaway outfit in case of a split. Son Muralidharan hasn8217;t grown out of dad8217;s shadow.

The other option for a splinter 8216;8216;I8217;8217; group faction, of sidling up to the opposition Left, doesn8217;t exist. The CPIM has declared it can8217;t allow them in. The Left needs to avert confusion next year, when it is going to the state polls taking on the same Congress it supports at the Centre.

This is especially so when the BJP has been increasing its vote share, now nudging 13 per cent. Most assembly polls have meant vote share differences of less than two per cent.

BUT if Karunakaran appears more inclined to talk to the AICC even as Muralidharan harps on an inevitable split, this too is in keeping with the pattern.

Muralidharan had amused himself contradicting his father and appearing to root for his then bete noire A.K. Antony, after Karunakaran had relented to his wishes and got him inducted into the Antony cabinet. But as soon as he was routed in a bypoll, Muralidharan was back by Karunakaran8217;s side.

While the AICC8217;s mind is still not known, one sure gainer from the mess is Antony. His insistence on averting a break up 8216;8216;at any cost8217;8217; could serve two purposes: in case the party splits, Chandy and other hawks would be left holding the can. And if Karunakaran stays 8212; more likely 8212; Antony would have the halo of championing unity.

Rajeev P.I.