Capital Context | Tamil Nadu’s moving pieces: DMK steady, AIADMK-BJP yet to finalise strategy, Vijay in play

While the M K Stalin-led DMK, the ruling party, remains confident about its position, even though a section in its ally Congress remains dissatisfied about the dynamics of their alliance, the main Opposition party, AIADMK, is in two minds over whether it should expand the NDA tent and attempt to ally with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) or attempt to dislodge the DMK from power with its current coalition partner BJP.

There is a section in the BJP, meanwhile, that wants the AIADMK to be left free so that it can go with the TVK. According to them, that is the best winning combination in Tamil Nadu today and the party could always tie up with them after the elections, paving the way for its further growth in the state. However, the BJP central leadership, according to insiders, remains undecided about the path to take.

DMK alliance

Although the DMK is comfortably placed in its seat-sharing and election strategy talks with allies such as the Left and the Thol Thirumavalavan-led Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the state Congress is a divided house over the alliance, with a section of leaders viewing the TVK as a viable alternative.

The biggest concern for the Congress is stagnation. It has been part of the alliance for over two decades, but has never received a share in power. Even if the DMK wins, the Congress will not be in the government unless the DMK makes a pre-poll agreement to this effect. For those wishing to explore other avenues, Vijay is the best bet to end decades of status quo. The organisational strength of the Congress is almost negligible in the state and it does not have a strong line-up of leaders. According to these leaders, the party’s growth opportunities have dried up in the DMK’s shadow, its identity is on the verge of disappearing, and its workers are frustrated.

The speculation gained momentum during Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi’s recent visit to the state, when he did not mention Stalin in his public remarks and expressed support for Vijay amid his battle against the Censor Board to release his movie. After meeting between the party high command and state Congress leaders last Saturday, Congress general secretary for organisation K C Venugopal said, “The meeting unanimously entrusted that Congress President and LoP will take the decisions. With regard to election strategy-related matters, the party high command will take appropriate decisions in due course.”

“It is unlikely that the coalition (with the TVK) forms the government. Then, what? Will Vijay stick to politics and work for five years? We will be out of power at the centre and the state. How will we go forward?” asked an MP.

The pragmatists say the Stalin government’s popularity has been bolstered by its welfare initiatives such as Vidiyal Payanam (Free Bus Travel Scheme) and Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam (Monthly Financial Assistance Scheme) and may not feel the impact of a Congress exit. The Opposition’s failure to make an anti-government narrative stick has also worked in the DMK’s favour as far as internal dynamics in the ruling coalition go.

AIADMK and BJP

This is an alliance thrust upon the AIADMK, according to a party leader, with many of the view that the tie-up could backfire as the BJP on its own does not have much to show in terms of electoral success in the state. In the 2021 Assembly polls, when the AIADMK won only 66 of the 191 seats it contested as part of the alliance (with a 33.5% vote share), the BJP managed to win four of the 20 seats in its share (2.6% vote share).

State BJP president Annamalai’s attempts to grow the party did not bring much success, apart from the party’s profile rising under his tenure. In 2023, the two parties split after months of friction caused by Annamalai’s attempts to expand in the Kongu region, which is also a core support base of AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami (both the leaders are from the influential OBC Gounder community).

Till November 2024, Palaniswami, a former CM, insisted that his party would not get back with the BJP. However, in April 2025, months after making the remarks, he and Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced the partnership for the 2026 polls. This came about after Annamalai was replaced by Nainar Nagendran as the state BJP president.

A few months later, Palaniswami made it clear that even if the coalition came to power, it would be a single-party government by the AIADMK. However, that too is not final as the BJP keeps pushing for a power-sharing pact. Last week, when Palaniswami was in Delhi, the party informed him of its wish for three ministerial berths if the coalition manages to unseat the DMK.

The Censor certificate controversy around Vijay-starrer Jana Nayagan has also pushed the AIADMK to a corner, as the Opposition alleges that these troubles for the TVK leader have been stirred up at the BJP’s behest. Vijay has also been questioned by the CBI in connection with the Kaurur stampede last September in which 41 people were killed. AIADMK insiders believe that their party’s prospects could be collateral damage if this narrative takes hold among Vijay’s substantial fanbase.

Vijay and other smaller parties

Under pressure from the BJP to join the NDA bandwagon, Vijay has been resisting it as he has centred his politics around an anti-BJP theme. Over the last few years, Vijay has developed a warm friendship with Rahul Gandhi and is in favour of many stances the Congress leader takes. However, the Karur stampede appears to have forced him to build connections with the BJP. Always looking for political opportunities, the BJP has been trying to capitalise on the developments in Tamil Nadu.

The central BJP is learnt to be convinced about the prospects of Vijay and believes that his support base of youngsters can contribute to the NDA’s push to win Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK, it has calculated, can provide what Vijay lacks: an organisation and the framework to translate his popularity into voters, and the BJP can extend support with its resources. However, amid all this, the Jana Nayagan controversy appears to have backfired.

The BJP is also learnt to be pressuring the AIADMK to invite expelled leaders O Panneerselvam and T T V Dhinakaran, and DMDK’s Premalatha Vijaykanth into the NDA fold — these smaller groups are keen on sharing power and resources — and create as broad an anti-DMK front as possible.