So who146;s next?

BY giving himself a three-month notice period, L.K. Advani has ensured the 8216;8216;After Advani, who?8217;8217; race gets ample time to play out. Shaken by the charge that it is too meddlesome in BJP affairs, the RSS has offically denied it will play any role in choosing the next chief. RSS spokesman Ram Madhav insists, 8216;8216;The Sangh will not interfere. It has neither proposed any name nor has it any intention to do so.8217;8217;

But everyone knows Advani8217;s successor will have to secure RSS approval. That is why no BJP leader is willing to join the Advani debate right now. And everyone insists the next chief will be chosen by 8216;8216;consensus8217;8217;. Since there are at least eight names in the reckoning, a consensus on any one isn8217;t going to be easy to achieve.

The contenders can be divided into two broad categories. The 8216;8216;Generation Next8217;8217; lot, comprising Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj. And the 8216;8216;senior8217;8217; quartet of Murli Manohar Joshi, Jaswant Singh, Bal Apte and M. Venkaiah Naidu.

Naidu has graduated from 8216;8216;Gen Next8217;8217; to 8216;8216;senior8217;8217; because of his previous term as BJP chief. Apte, currently vice-president, is seen as a Sangh man.

According to insiders, the second-generation lot are not keen participants. With a long political innings ahead, none wants to take the job when RSS-BJP ties are in a mess. They don8217;t want to be seen as RSS 8216;8216;puppets8217;8217; and neither do they want to alienate the Nagpur elders.

They would rather sit out this one and get into the race in 2007 8212; whoever becomes chief then will lead the party in the 15th general election.

OF the four 8216;8216;senior8217;8217; leaders, Joshi 8212; still smarting at the way he was denied a second term by Advani in the early 1990s 8212; has always wanted to return to the top post. But with the RSS unwilling to be a visible puppeteer, Joshi8217;s identification with 8216;8216;hard Hindutva8217;8217; could prove a handicap.

Apte may have the Sangh8217;s backing, but high profile Gen Next leaders may not accept his leadership. Jaswant Singh may enjoy an excellent rapport with the Big Two but is too remote from party rank and file to be an effective president. And Venkaiah Naidu will take the baton only if others absolutely refuse to.

If a 8216;8216;senior8217;8217; succeeds Advani, he will be regarded an 8216;8216;interim8217;8217; chief. The real battle will be postponed by a year or more.

And the dark horse? Advani, of course. As one BJP leader said, 8216;8216;Three months is a long time in politics. If we win Bihar, if the UPA crisis deepens 8230;8217;8217;