Slowdown in Islamabad

While External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh has consolidated some of the recent gains in the Indo-Pak peace process and expanded the scope ...

While External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh has consolidated some of the recent gains in the Indo-Pak peace process and expanded the scope of the dialogue, his talks with the leadership in Islamabad have also revealed an emerging danger to the peace process. The inability to address mutual concerns on Kashmir for Pakistan and cross-border terrorism for India might have begun to slow the pace of the peace process. The problem of finding reciprocal movement on Kashmir and terrorism, which came up last month at the New York meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, has apparently not been resolved by Natwar Singh in Islamabad. This probably is the reason why the joint statement issued after his talks in Islamabad did not match the expectations of a breakthrough on the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes.

As they promise to inch forward on Siachen and Sir Creek, India and Pakistan have significantly widened the agenda of the bilateral talks by reviving the Joint Commission after nearly 16 years. The Joint Commission will allow the two sides to address a range of issues 8212; from cooperation in agriculture to tourism 8212; that are not covered by the eight-point composite dialogue. In

Islamabad, Natwar Singh has had an opportunity to wrap up some agreements, like confidence-building measures as prior notification of ballistic missile tests and a hotline between the two Coast Guards. He has also made some progress on intensifying people-to-people contact between the two countries, especially in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. While movement on this broad front is welcome, it has certainly not been decisive.

At the root of the new tentativeness is the absence of a political understanding on the sequence and timing of the next steps on Kashmir and terrorism. Pakistan is looking for specific actions 8212; like troop reductions 8212; from India to improve the political conditions in Kashmir. India wants credible measures on Pakistan8217;s part to end cross-border terrorism, once and for all. On these counts, the Natwar Singh-Kasuri joint statement does not offer new insights. Unless these two issues are addressed to mutual satisfaction, there is a danger that the peace process may not just stall but go into reverse gear.