Sleepless in Shimla

Although assembly elections are yet to be scheduled in the state in February but campaigning has begun in right earnest. 8216;8216;I have travelled extensively covering every village in the state for the last one-and-a-half month8217;8217; boasts former chief minister and Congress legislature party leader Virbhadra Singh. Dhumal has been equally busy with his Vishwas Yatra for over a month.

Whither Himachal?

Tucked away in the Siwalik range, the tiny hill state of Himachal Pradesh has never grabbed the country8217;s attention with such remarkable passion. Whither Himachal? That8217;s one question dogging many an observer as political temperature shoots up in the state going to polls next month. For the parties involved the stakes are equivalent to 8216;8216;do or die8217;8217;. The BJP would like Himachal Pradesh to be the all-important second ball of snow that will decide whether a Hindutva avalanche is on or not. And for a nervous Congress, its century old history and all, HP results would dictate what course the party should adopt to reclaim Delhi perhaps in 2004.

No doubt, while Congress leader Mohsina Kidwai has made frequent visits to the state, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has already held a public rally in Theog. While BJP general secretary and incharge of Himachal O P Kohli has begun camping in the state holding regular meetings in the palatial Peterhoff building near Summer Hill, party general secretary Arun Jaitley has begun travelling to the state every week.

So much through the national lens. What does the local leaders think are the issues involved? Says Virbhadra Singh: 8216;8216;It is of utmost importance for us to win the elections to restrain the rising tide of communal forces.8217;8217; Pat comes the retort from Dhumal: 8216;8216;The volume of development we undertook in the past five years could not be matched by the Congress in the last 40 years.8217;8217; And besides he believes that Gujarat has shown that the anti-incumbency factor is no longer insurmountable. After their resounding victory in Gujarat, retaining Himachal has become the biggest prestige issue for the BJP. 8216;8216;With neither Godhra nor Akshardham, Himachal elections will totally be fought on the issue of development,8217;8217; claims Dhumal. He boasts about his achievements in basic infrastructure, especially power projects and highways. With only two per cent minority votes, including that of Christians and Muslims, Dhumal is aware that the party will find the rallying of the Hindutva votes an almost impossible task.

Great Indian caste factor

The Congress leaders harp on the corruption scandals that the Dhumal government is embroiled in and talks of the 8216;8216;great anti-incumbency wave sweeping the state.8217;8217; But scratch the surface and in the absence of the Hindutva wave, the great Indian caste factor comes to the forefront. With 38 per cent Rajput population, Thakurs have ruled the state most of its history. The first CM of the state, Y S Parmar was a Rajput. So is Dhumal. Ditto Virbhadra, who remained in the saddle for 12 years. Even Stokes, whose surname sounds Christian, claims a Thakur lineage from her father8217;s side.

8216;8216;The Congress has no tall Brahmin leader,8217;8217; accepts Stokes. With 18 per cent of the population as Brahmins, the BJP has been quick to fill the gap. Shanta Kumar, a Brahmin leader and the BJP MP from the state, has already been assigned the key role of party chairman of the election panel.

The 25 per cent Dalit votes and 16 per cent OBC votes, particularly in the lower Himachal has always been the deciding factor. No doubt the Dhumal government has made tremendous efforts to woo this section by providing Gujjars and Gaddis, constituting over 12 per cent of the population, the status of 8216;backwards.8217; With Kolis dominating the Dalits, Lok Shakti leader Ram Vilas Paswan, has decided to step in the state for the first time.

The Paradoxical Pivot

Competing to create winnable votebanks, while both the BJP and the Congress are daggers drawn at each other, the paradox of the Himachal elections can only be understood through the Sukh Ram factor. This controversial leader known widely for his stacks of notes in his bathroom is the decisive pivot of Himachal politics. Why? Consider the paradox: With a smaller percentage vote 39 per cent the BJP managed to form the government in Himachal in 1998 despite the Congress8217;s larger percentage vote 44 per cent. The reason was Sukh Ram8217;s support to the BJP with his 10 per cent vote. Despite providing outside support to the BJP for the full term, in the February assembly polls Sukh Ram has decided to form a third front with the CPI-M and the Himachal Loktantrik Morcha, a conglomeration of small groups. 8216;8216;One meeting has already taken place and more are on the anvil to

materialise the Third Front. We would contest all the assembly seats independently without an alliance with any of the major parties until they give a written commitment to implement our programmes,8217;8217; claims Sukh Ram. With the final trump card in his hands, Sukh Ram has become the Damocles8217; sword hanging over the heads of the two parties.

While Virbhadra Singh claims that 8216;8216;Sukh Ram does not command the support that he did in the past,8217;8217; Stokes is attempting to bring back the Congress rebels who left with Sukh Ram into the party fold. 8216;8216;With his telecom revolution reaching every village and his Brahmin support base, he is a powerful factor to reckon with,8217;8217; admits a Congressman from the Stokes camp.

Enemies within

It is the inner party factionalism 8212; Virbhadra versus Stokes in the Congress and Dhumal versus Shanta Kumar in the BJP 8212; that plays the blind move in predicting an election. Dhumal is charged with engineering the conspiracy of delimitation to cut Shanta Kumar to size in the BJP and Virbhadra in the Congress. Virbhadra Singh8217;s supporters claim that 8216;8216;Stokes is the B-team of the BJP,8217;8217; while Stokes8217;s supporters retort that 8216;8216;Virbhadra Singh only targetted Congressmen during his 12-year tenure, but never attacked any BJP leader.8217;8217; Although as election time nears all leaders project unity in public, it is the enemy within each camp that will greatly determine the performance of each party during the polls.

The New Year8217;s eve snow in Himachal brings with it hope along with cooling of sectarian passions. With development versus corruption bound to become the main agenda in the polls, the tiny state of Himachal is bound to return a temporarily communal divide in the country a la Gujarat back to the bread and butter issue. Whether saffron wins or the tricolour is something that will depend as much on the pivotal paradox of the Himalayan state as much as on the voters of Himachal.