Sea Change

The Satabhaya region, once a cluster of seven villages, is 25 km from the port of Paradip, at the confluence of the Mahanadi and Brahmani rivers, metres away from the Bhitarkanika National Park.

Over the years, the sea has come dangerously close to the villages, swallowing half the number of houses there and forcing people to migrate to higher ground. The houses that still remain literally at the edge of the sea belong to people too poor to find an alternative accommodation. While 500 people have migrated, there are 1,000 left who are forced to shift periodically to higher ground keeping pace with the rising waters. The erosion has been going on for several years but in the past four-five years, the sea8217;s ingress has been quick and dramatic.

The result is that each high tide is anticipated with dread, especially in the period that straddles the months from May to September. Raut is still in the process of moving his belongings from his old house when The Indian Express caught up with him. 8220;We kept hoping that our house would be spared, but on the last new moon night, the water came right into my house. That is when I decided it was time to move to another place,8221; says Raut.

The group of villages are a good 10 km away from the nearest roadhead at Okilpara. The drive is through a narrow strip of mud embankment with mangroves on either side. Raut has to cross a narrow but crocodile-infested river that meanders desultorily through the mangroves before it meets the sea. The only means of crossing the river is a small wooden boat that doesn8217;t look too sturdy. Now the distance between the sea and the bank of the river is fast narrowing.

Raut as well as others of his age remember the long trek they used to make to reach the sea when they were younger. 8220;I used to accompany my father and it took us a good six hours to reach the sea through thick mangroves,8221; remembers Raut.

To the youngsters at the village, this sounds incredulous. The sea washes right up to the village on a normal day. At high tide, most of the other houses are also inundated. A rice mill, some houses and the local school are islanded in the sea.

In spite of the inaccessibility, the villages at the edge of the coast were worth living in because of the fertile land that gave them a decent rice harvest. Today, most of the fields are now lost to erosion or are covered with a layer of saline water. Growing rice is no longer possible. That is why Raut has to look for other means of livelihood.

8220;I have been going to Bangalore for the last two years to work as a rajmistri mason,8221; he says.

These hardships suffered by the villagers are yet to spur the local authorities into action. On the other hand, people like Raut still pay land tax to the government even after the have ceased to be productive landholders, their plots having been either submerged or turned inarable due to salinity.

The locals have their own theories on the phenomenon, some of which corroborate what the scientists say. Richard Mahapatra, a researcher who has written extensively on this issue interviewed 70 residents of Satabhaya and Kanhapur villages. They spoke of the local climate changing, the sea getting warmer and the number of cyclones increasing each year.

Scientifically, the link between the increase in sea surface temperature and a corresponding increase in cyclone intensity has been established. Recent studies suggest a possible increase in cyclone intensity of 10-20 per cent for a rise in sea surface temperature of 2-4 degrees Celsius.

Warmer seas also trigger a phenomenon called thermal expansion. When the liquid heats up, its volume expands. In the case of the sea8212;which is after all a massive store of liquid8212;rising surface temperatures lead to expansion of the mass, thus causing sea levels to rise.

Warmer climate is not only manifest in warmer seas. An linkage is also to glaciers. They melting faster, adding more water to the rivers that empty out into the seas.

India is one of the 27 countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels, according to a 1989 United Nations Environment Programme assessment. Despite this warning, very few scientists have studied the Indian coasts to find the exact impact of rising sea levels.

One of the first studies was carried out by the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, in 1993, in which the consequences of a one metre rise in sea level were evaluated. The study concluded that, in the absence of protection, approximately seven million people would be displaced and 5,764 sq km of land and 4,200 km of roads and highways would be lost. A subsequent study by the Tata Energy Research Institute 1996 explored the relative vulnerability of various coastal regions including the Orissa coast, the effects of adaptive responses to the impact of rising sea levels, and the value of coastal protection for selected regions.

Among other things, the studies concluded that low-lying areas like Satabhaya near the coast were particularly vulnerable. Various factors can come together to make the impact very dramatic8212;as in Orissa8217;s coastal villages. Most scientists, when contacted said that there is a need to study this phenomenon in Satabhaya and see what it means for India8217;s 7,500 km long coastline. The issue is certainly getting hot.

An omen for the future
Why is the Indian coastline vulnerable?
The Indian coastline stretching 7,500 km is facing a lot of pressure, overexploitation of marine resources, dumping of industrial waste and over-population. Scientists agree that there will be temperature increase in the coming years. Sea-level rises due to thermal expansion of near surface-water. It hits the extensive low-lying, densely populated coastal zone the hardest. India has been identified as one among the 27 countries most vulnerable to the impacts of accelerated sea level rise by UNEP. One of the main reasons is that most people living on the coast are dependent on it for their livelihoods.

What do we already know about sea-level rise?
According to a study by IIT Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, observations suggest that sea level has risen at the rate of 2.5 mm per year since the 1950s. A mean sea level rise of between 15 and 38 cms is projected by mid-21st century along India8217;s coast. A 15 per cent projected increase in intensity of tropical cyclones would increase vulnerability of populations living in coastal regions.

What impact would this have?
Global warming leads to increase in sea surface temperature that results in change in intensity of cyclones. Sea level rise may increase the loss of cultivable lands due to inundation, salt water intrusions into coastal ecosystem and loss of biodiversity.
According to the IIT study, a total area of 5,763 sq km along the coastal states of India could be inundated and 4.6 per cent of coastal population could be affected. Vulnerability is assessed also in terms of level of socio-economic development like population, density, land uses and level of infrastructure.
According to the study, from the physical point of view, Gujarat and West Bengal would be worst affected since they stand to lose the maximum land to one metre sea level rise In terms of population, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu could be worst affected.

What do scientists say about what8217;s happening at Satayabhaya in Orissa?
Dr Murari Lal, coordinating lead author of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, a global body of scientists studying climate change: 8220;This phenomenon may well be the preliminary impact of global warming-induced sea-level rise. Given Orissa8217;s geographical location at the head of the Bay of Bengal, a landlocked sea, and the state8217;s deltaic plain character, Orissa8217;s coast is extremely vulnerable to rises in sea level.8221;