Red, Blue and other colours

Much is written comparing the world8217;s oldest democracy, the United States, with the world8217;s largest democracy, India.

Much is written comparing the world8217;s oldest democracy, the United States, with the world8217;s largest democracy, India. One comparison that isn8217;t made very often is the uneasy co-existence of two different worlds in each country 8212; Red vs Blue in the US and Bharat vs India back home.

The fault lines in the US seem to emerge largely around social issues and foreign policy issues. Red America consists of states in the vast interior, isolated from the rest of the world, and from the rest of America as well. It is hardly surprising that people living in these states have limited knowledge and little interest in the world outside. In social terms, a majority of these people are extremely conservative 8212; pro-life, pro-guns, anti-gay, pro-marriage, anti-sex before then, pro-women best as homemakers, you get the gist. On both social and foreign policy they could not be more different from liberal Americans. In economic terms, the political positions of Red and Blue America are more counter-intuitive 8212; the Republican party favours the freemarket including 8220;job-destroying8221; free tradenbsp; and apparently 8220;pro-rich8221; lower taxes, lower spending on welfare programmes policies; the Democrats are more protectionist and 8220;pro-poor8221; more spending on social programmes, universal health care, higher taxes. However, Red America, which has the lower per capita income by some distance, votes 8220;pro-rich8221; Republican, and the much richer Blues clustered on the two coasts vote 8220;pro-poor8221; Democrat.

At the time of partisan politics the fault lines on social policy and foreign policy are more prominent. The enthusiastic support accorded to the extremely conservative Sarah Palin, when compared with the lukewarm support extended to moderate John McCain by the conservative faithful, provides an indication of how important issues like abortion and guns are for ordinary 8220;Red8221; republicans. If economics was the main focus of this race, the Democrats ought to be doing much better across party lines than running neck-and-neck in the opinion polls with a party that has botched economic governance, and presides over a stagnating economy. A disaggregated look at opinion poll data so far, however, shows the familiar Red-Blue divide of 2000 and 2004.

The stakes on November 5 could not be higher because the winner will take all, and govern using their own belief system 8212; inevitably miles away from that of the other side. Hence the importance of turnout amongst the party faithful, perhaps even more than the direction in which a minority of independents sway.nbsp;

What about India? Most analysts would agree that we do live in two different worlds 8212; one of opportunity, and another of exclusion. The divide isn8217;t as clearly defined in terms of geography or income here. It would be fair to say, though, that one is more likely to be a part of India if one is urban, educated and English-speaking. One is more likely to be part of Bharat if one is rural, uneducated and vernacular-speaking. Again, somewhat counter-intuitively, one finds greater strength of conservative often religion-based social and political opinion in more educated India than in under-educated Bharat.

The impact of this divide on politics is not as simple as in the US. There is no doubt that there is a clear overall majority in the Bharat category 8212;it8217;s nowhere like the almost 50-50 split in the US. So, electorally, the majority should carry the day every time. And it probably does. It8217;s just that there isn8217;t any one political party this vote coalesces around. Most of the time it is a negative vote against an incumbent party, which has failed to deliver mostly public goods like schools, hospitals, roads, electricity and water.

While electoral rhetoric panders to Bharat8217;s sentiments the agenda for governance centres around India8217;s inclinations. This is not surprising 8212; the ruling political class at the Centre either belongs to the English-speaking set or gets co-opted into it. There is more room for different agendas at the level of state government 8212; think Lalu Yadav8217;s social empowerment/economic stagnation agenda in Bihar or Mayawati8217;s dalit empowerment agenda in Uttar Pradesh.

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The Centre is still dominated by the main national parties, even if in coalitions, which makes the middle classes in India comfortable. The people of Bharat ultimately determine which coalition rules, but the governance agenda focused on India8217;s interests has not been radically different over the last 20 years. In fact, a Congress 038; allies vs a BJP 038; allies bipolarity would suit the urban educated classes just fine.

In the longer term, more than the Left, it is Mayawati8217;s BSP which has the potential to shake up the middle-class consensus of Indian politics 8212; her coalition of the deprived cutting across castes in UP may be a primer of things to come elsewhere.nbsp;If the BSP and like-minded parties manage to cultivate an all-India electoral presence, then the next bipolarity in Indian politics may be a BSP 038; allies vs Cong 038; BJP in alliance. That8217;s when Bharat and India may end up clashing. For the moment though, a political khichdi cutting across Bharat and India is best suited to a polity which is more complex and heterogeneous than America8217;s.

dhiraj.nayyarexpressindia.com