Putin8217;s surprises

Russia's president-elect Vladimir Putin surprised everyone by several quick moves on arms control. Even before being formally sworn in as ...

Russia8217;s president-elect Vladimir Putin surprised everyone by several quick moves on arms control. Even before being formally sworn in as president, he managed to persuade a majority in the Duma, the lower house of parliament, to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and, a few days earlier, the START-2 treaty.

Boris Yeltsin, the outgoing president, was unable to do either proving that he lacks the political will and understanding of his successor. Under the terms of START-2 which the US ratified in the mid-1990s, both countries are required to reduce their nuclear arsenals by half. They should set to it without further loss of time. On the CTBT front, Russia8217;s example can help restart the stalled arms control process. Although the communists, the second largest party in the Duma, showed nervousness, a convincing majority of members approved the CTBT giving Russia a moral victory over the US where a highly partisan Congress refused to vote for the treaty more out of spite than good sense.

In obstructing President Bill Clinton who had staked a great deal on seeing the treaty come into force at an early date, the US Congress set back efforts to freeze bomb-making capabilities by several years. Vital momentum once lost is hard to recover. Now the Russians have given Clinton a second chance to push the treaty through Congress. He should seize it. If he decides not to take the risk, more uncertainty will ensue. Neither Al Gore nor George Bush Jr seems inclined to talk arms control.

In what shape the test ban initiative emerges after US presidential elections and the transition to a new administration is something the world will worry about. China, the other weapons power holding back from ratification, needs more than Russian good behaviour to convince it to do the right thing. Beijing will watch developments in the US as also Indian moves before making up its mind.

Russian endorsement of major arms control measures has implications India will have to watch closely. Most significant is the message that, after years of striking defensive postures on international security issues, Moscow may be taking a new path. Vis-a-vis the US, Moscow has put itself on firmer ground as it counters Washington8217;s attempts to rewrite the 1972 ABM treaty. Posing as the 8220;good guy8221; on the CTBT raises Russia8217;s international standing and restores to some extent its leadership role in the world. The moves are timed to coincide with the opening of a month-long review conference in Geneva on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT during which the five weapons powers are expected to come under pressure to accelerate the process of eliminating nuclear weapons. Washington and Moscow are currently engaged in START-3 talks entailing further cuts in their nuclear stockpiles. Only after deeper reductions in the big-two arsenals can France, China and Britain be persuaded to reduce theirs. The wholeprocess can take an indeterminate amount of time. Now that Russia sees arms control and disarmament serve its interests, perhaps it will lend new momentum to the process of disarmament.