Which way will it swing?

Predictability is an unhealthy trend for a game whose selling point happens to be its glorious uncertainty,but unfortunately,thats how things have been in this series so far.

And while it can be argued that New Zealands fightback from a precarious 20/3 on the first morning of the second Test in Napier counts for something,there have been no sessions that have turned the game on its head,no brilliant spells or runaway knocks that have changed the direction of the game. The only period of play with some kind of ebb and flow was when India were batting on the third day,and even that was due to some reckless strokeplay rather than help from the pitch.

Other than that,teams that have taken the early advantage have seen it through to the end rather than the customary who blinks first,its been a series where being quicker on the draw has mattered more. On rock-solid pitches with nothing in it for the quick bowlers and where bowlers footmarks didnt create any kind of rough,U-turns were practically impossible.

Now,in Wellington,theres a desperate need for and a definite possibility of a cliffhanger that goes to the wire,where a late twist can turn winners into losers.

First off the block

Taking stock of the opening days of the first two Tests makes it clear how they had a long-term impact on the two matches. At Hamilton,New Zealand went from 61/6 to 279 all out and India reached 47/0 at stumps. This was enough for India to dominate the rest of the game. In Napier,New Zealand finished the day at 351/4 and India ended up playing catch up for the next four days.

At the end of the Napier Test,New Zealand coach Andy Moles said that even if that match had gone on for five more days,chances were that the pitch would have remained true.

There have been murmurs that the kind of tracks that have been laid out are part of the red carpet rolled out to the cash-rich Indian board,and also of pressure from broadcasters,whod like to avoid three-day Tests. But the curator at the Basin Reserve said it was the climatic conditions that were responsible for the placid wickets.

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It is hard to get a pitch that will break up at this time of the year, Brett Sipthorpe said of the track in Wellington on Thursday. The sun is not that intense any more,so there is a likelihood that the pitch isnt going to break up that much. It has had a ton of rolling and was ready quite a while ago.

Battling conditions

And while the pitch in Wellington isnt likely to break up,hope for a cliffhanger lies in the conditions itself. The 22-yard strip at the Basin Reserve has a history of slightly disconcerting bounce; add to that the dipping temperature and the wind factor,and bowling sides will run in on all five days believing they have a fair shot at dislodging batsmen.

Indias last tour here in 2002-03 was all about green tracks,with Test matches reduced to little more than lotteries,with favourites changing by the hour. This tour has been the other extreme up to this point,but hopefully the last five days will provide some redemption.

Sandeep Dwivedi

Sandeep Dwivedi is the Sports Editor at The Indian Express. He is one of India's most prominent sports journalists, known for his deep analytical insights and storytelling that often goes beyond scores and statistics to explore the human and cultural side of sports. Professional Profile Role: As the Sports Editor, he leads the sports coverage for the newspaper and the website. Weekly Column: He writes "The Sports Column," a weekly feature where he provides sharp, narrative-driven perspectives on the biggest sporting news of the week. Podcast: He is a frequent contributor to the "Express Sports" podcast (Game Time), where he discusses evolving trends in cricket and other international sports. Areas of Expertise While Dwivedi covers the entire sporting spectrum, his work is particularly noted in the following areas: Cricket: He provides extensive coverage of the Indian National Team and the IPL. He frequently analyzes the leadership styles of figures like Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, and Gautam Gambhir. He is known for tracking the transition phases of Indian cricket and the evolution of specific players like Kuldeep Yadav and Rishabh Pant. Athletics & Olympic Sports: He has written extensively on Neeraj Chopra’s rise in javelin, the nuances of Indian shooting, and tennis legends like Sania Mirza and Leander Paes. Human Interest Stories: A hallmark of his writing is his focus on the struggles and backgrounds of athletes, such as the sacrifices made by Shafali Verma’s father or the "silent battles" of veteran players like Cheteshwar Pujara. Notable Recent Work & Themes Leadership and Dynamics: Recently, he has written about the dynamic between Gautam Gambhir, Virat Kohli, and Rohit Sharma, arguing that personal friendship is not a prerequisite for team success. Sports & Culture: His articles often intersect with global culture, such as his deep dive into the 100-year legacy of the Harlem Globetrotters and their role as American soft power during the Cold War. The "Grey Areas" of Sport: He often addresses sensitive topics like the mental health of cricketers post-retirement, the "outrage industry" in sports broadcasting, and the impact of fan-wars on the game. Tenure and Experience Dwivedi has been with The Indian Express for over three decades. This experience allows him to provide historical context to modern sporting events, often comparing current crises or triumphs to those of previous generations. You can follow his latest work and columns on his official Indian Express Author Profile. ... Read More