Iran8217;s 8216;damaged8217; president back for UN spotlight

He8217;s damaged,said Ahmad Bakhshayesh,a political affairs professor at Tehran8217;s Azad University. Dubai-based analyst Theodore Karasik sees 8216;a badly wounded lame duck8217; arriving in New York for the UN General Assembly session that begins Tuesday.

There8217;s little doubt about Iran8217;s political pecking order these days: Ahmadinejad and his allies are sharply diminished while the theocracy and its protectors 8212; including the hugely powerful Revolutionary Guard 8212; are grinding away at any opposition.

This suggests Ahmadinejad8217;s voice may be as booming as ever at the UN 8212; and in possible side trips around New York 8212; but his role as an emissary of Iran8217;s ruling system is severely muted.

It adds to the increasing difficulties for Western officials to interpret Iran8217;s moves with international talks stalled over Tehran8217;s nuclear program and key Middle East ally Bashar Assad in Syria locked in a battle for survival against Arab Spring protesters.

The crosscurrent messages were on full display this week over possible negotiations to free two Americans jailed in Tehran as spies. Ahmadinejad said a bail-for-freedom deal could be on the fast track. But Iran8217;s judiciary 8212; directly controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 8212; quickly slapped him down with a blunt reminder that only the courts have the authority to set a timetable on a possible release.

By the recent standards of Iran8217;s infighting,Ahmadinejad got off easy.

Dozens of Ahmadinejad8217;s political backers have been arrested or hounded out of the public eye by hard-line forces in recent months. His protege and top aide,Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei,has been effectively blackballed from his goal of succeeding Ahmadinejad in 2013 elections by a series of reputation-killing accusations.

They include leading a 8216;deviant current8217; that seeks to challenge the system of theocratic rule,and alleged links to a 2.6 billion bank fraud probe described as the biggest financial corruption scam in Iran8217;s history. Some critics have even accused Mashaei of using 8216;black magic8217; spells to cloud Ahmadinejad8217;s mind.

In June,Ahmadinejad railed against his opponents 8212; and Khamenei by extension 8212; for launching a 8216;politically motivated8217; campaign,and he vowed to stand by Mashaei,whose daughter is married to the president8217;s son.

Ahmadinejad will be going to the UN weaker and more isolated at home than any other time since taking office in 2005,said Meir Javedanfar,an Israel-based analyst and co-author of an Ahmadinejad biography 8216;The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran8217;.

It wasn8217;t too long ago that Ahmadinejad was seen as a favored son of Iran8217;s hierarchy.

Khamenei stood by the president8217;s side after his disputed re-election in June 2009 and kept up the show of unity as security forces systematically crushed the opposition protests and put a ring of silence around its leaders,who are believed to be under round-the-clock watch.

Cracks began to show as the political comfort level grew after the unrest ebbed. Ahmadinejad cautiously tried to nudge the boundaries of his office into the exclusive territory of the ruling clerics,who oversee all important policies,appointments and programs 8212; including nuclear and missile development.

The sharp message back to Ahmadinejad: Stick to your own affairs that mostly occupy domestic issues and promoting the leadership8217;s stances around the world.

The real fireworks came in April when Ahmadinejad apparently forced the resignation of the influential Intelligence Minister Haidar Moslehi. Khamenei tossed it all back,reinstating Moslehi and prompting a 10-day tantrum by Ahmadinejad,who stayed away from Cabinet meetings and other duties.

Over the past year,he occasionally appeared like a spokesman for the opposition,said Sasan Golestan,a columnist for several Iranian newspapers.

Ahmadinejad eventually made conciliatory statements to Khamenei and his inner circle. But it also would seem that Ahmadinejad promised a change of public tone along with the contrition. Much of his old bombast has been replaced by more subdued atmospherics 8212; appearing at times more professorial than the firebrand who once called for Israel to be wiped off the map.

There were even plaintive moments in an interview with NBC earlier this week.

Why the American leaders are so hostile against us? he said in comments Tuesday on the 8216;Today8217; show.

Shortly after Ahmadinejad returns to Iran from New York,the country will shift into election mode for parliamentary balloting in March. The vote will be a clear test for Ahmadinejad8217;s final year in office. Forces loyal to Khamenei have already set up political committees whose goal is to steamroll Ahmadinejad8217;s allies.

But some believe Ahmadinejad8217;s political skills are being underestimated.

He learned from the showdown with Khamenei 8230; it8217;s too early to say he is finished,said Sadegh Zibakalam,a Tehran University political science professor.

Zibakalam notes that Ahmadinejad8217;s political machine remains strong in his base in Iran8217;s hinterlands among low-income families,who lavishly praise his government8217;s anti-poverty handouts. Ahmadinejad8217;s opponents become worried when he visits the provinces. But they grow even more concerned when he8217;s at the UN,8221; said Reza Mahmoudi,a mechanical engineer who has voted for Ahmadinejad in two elections. It8217;s a chance for him to talk to the world.