First things first

At Galle last year,two Sri Lankan batsmen made hundreds on Day One. India lost the Test by ten wickets,and Muttiah Muralitharan,in his farewell Test,picked up the eight wickets he needed to reach 800. A few months later at Centurion,India were all out for 136 in their first innings of the tour,lasting only 38.4 overs. On the same wicket,South Africa made over 600,ruthlessly taking apart an Indian attack that lacked Zaheer Khan,and won by an innings.

India travelled to the Caribbean this June with a bunch of young batsmen expected to fill their boots and make their case for long-term selection. On Day One at Sabina Park,they were six down for 85. India may have won that Test and the series,but the newbies ended the tour with their reputations still in question.

A couple of months down the road at Lords,at the start of a series billed as the battle for number one,everything that could go wrong for India did. Zaheer Khan sent back the England openers,but walked off clutching his leg,never to be seen again for the rest of the series. The sight of MS Dhoni taking his pads off to have a bowl just after lunch provided a taste of the unceasing misery that would follow the tourists through the four Tests.

Except for England,India have tended to bounce back after suffering first Test blues. But a team desiring world domination shouldnt have their backs against the wall so often,in the first place. On previous tours,India could blame poor preparation,but not here they played two tour games,had a set of Test specialists arriving well in advance of the rest,and have spent enough time at the nets to go into Boxing Day with pretty much all bases covered.

MCG blues

Considering Indias recent history at the MCG,that meticulous build-up was imperative. India have lost each of their last four Tests at the venue,stretching back to 1991-92. Sachin Tendulkar has never experienced a draw,let alone a win,at Melbourne.

For the pessimist,there is enough potential for disaster in his fifth match here. It isnt quite sure whether Indias two main fast bowlers,Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma,will remain fit through the entire series. The worst-case scenario involves one or both of them breaking down at Melbourne itself. Umesh Yadav and Ravichandran Ashwin,the other two bowlers likely to play the first Test,are unproven on foreign soil.

Batting is Indias stronger suit by far,but the same set of batsmen have come unstuck early on in previous tours. On Boxing Day last year,England bowled Australia out for 98. A greenish wicket,under what is expected to be an overcast sky,could cause a similar fate to befall India were they to bat first.

Home team woes

But if we ask the pessimist for his verdict on Australia,the home team might actually begin the series with more to worry about. At the pre-match press conference on Saturday the captains will rest their vocal cords on Christmas,Australian skipper Clarke had defended the selection of Ben Hilfenhaus over the younger,taller,quicker and leftier Mitchell Starc,saying the former had enjoyed success against India before. Hilfenhauss record against India reads six wickets in two Tests at 43.50. Peter Siddle and James Pattinson,who complete the seam attack,arent the most frightening names that Indias batsmen have encountered. Nathan Lyon has begun his Test career well,but hes an off spinner,and Indians are reckoned to eat off spinners for a little snack between lunch and dinner.

Australias top three David Warner,Ed Cowan and Shaun Marsh have between them played five Tests. One is a debutant,one carries the burden of too much hype too soon,and the other will probably not start the match 100 per cent fit. Behind them in the order are Ricky Ponting,Michael Clarke and Michael Hussey a leader finding his feet sandwiched between two ageing legends battling the worst form of their lives. At seven,Brad Haddins shot selection has been positively Afridi-esque of late.

In short,both sides have weaknesses. Victory might just go to the players that arent consumed by their own insecurities and dont let the frailties of their opponents dull their focus.

Squad:

Australia XI: Michael Clarke c,Ed Cowan,David Warner,Shaun Marsh,Ricky Ponting,Michael Hussey,Brad Haddin,Nathan Lyon,Ben Hilfenhaus,Peter Siddle,James Pattinson.

India likely XI: MS Dhoni c,Virender Sehwag,Gautam Gambhir,Rahul Dravid,Sachin Tendulkar,VVS Laxman,Virat Kohli,R Ashwin,Umesh Yadav,Zaheer Khan,Ishant Sharma.

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