Persian Jigsaw

The US intelligence report released Monday, which found Iran does not have an active nuclear weapons programme, has eased international pressure for sanctions and invigorated the country8217;s hard-liners. This comes as the Arab world has been countering Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad8217;s rhetoric and his government8217;s influence over the presidential turmoil in Lebanon, the politics in Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

The report did not allay Arab fears over Iran8217;s nuclear intentions and its secretive programme to enrich uranium.

Days before the intelligence assessment was made public, Ahmadinejad was the first Iranian president to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Qatar. The meeting was hailed by many as a symbolic milestone to diffuse decades of tensions between Shiite-dominated Iran and the region8217;s other oil-producing, mostly Sunni nations. The Iranian president, however, did little at the meeting to calm nerves about his country8217;s regional military ambitions.

Suspicion that Iran seeks to dominate the Persian Gulf has prompted some Middle East states 8212; including Saudi Arabia, which Washington regards at the leading Arab voice 8212; to increase their own military spending.

8220;There8217;s no trust on the Arab side about Iran8217;s intentions,8221; said Christian Koch, research director for international studies at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. 8220;There are concerns of Iran8217;s nuclear programme for military purposes. There are concerns about Iran8217;s influence in Iraq, over the unsettled political situation in Lebanon and over the dispute regarding8221; Iran8217;s occupation of three islands claimed by the United Arab Emirates.

Some in the region believe, however, that the US report might soften the mistrust between Iran and its neighbours and lead to a degree of rapprochement. Nabil Abdel-Fattah, an analyst with Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said the report might help Tehran 8220;widen the rift8221; between Washington and its Arab allies, who had feared that they would be retaliated against if the US attacked Iran.

8220;The report sends assurances to the Gulf countries and particularly to the Saudi kingdom,8221; Fattah said. 8220;The Gulf countries know that if the US strikes Iran, they will turn into Iranian hostages.8221;

The view across much of the Middle East is that Iran8217;s defiance of the Bush administration was clever policy that was, at least temporarily, vindicated by US intelligence. It is likely to further enhance the image of

Ahmadinejad, whose popularity in the Arab street is rooted in a belligerence toward the West, a quality many Arabs wish their own leaders would show more often.

Speaking in Iran on Wednesday, Ahmadinejad was quoted by the state news agency saying the US report was a 8220;final blow8221; to Iran8217;s critics and was a clear message 8220;that the Iranian people were on the right course. Today, Iran has turned to a nuclear country and all world countries have accepted this fact.8221;

Many Middle East analysts believe the report signals that the US is shifting from its combative approach toward Tehran, which has bedeviled Washington8217;s diplomatic and democracy-building efforts across the region. This situation has turned more precarious because of Iran8217;s brinkmanship and dismay at Washington8217;s perceived weakness by Arab allies over US policy failures. Arab capitals blame the Bush administration for the continued bloodshed in Iraq and waiting for nearly seven years before aggressively committing to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

8220;This report is a face-saving device for the US. It gives the US administration a subtle way to backtrack on their stance regarding the Iranian nuclear issues,8221; said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon. 8220;What we are seeing is not a change in the US strategy of reshaping the Middle East but rather a change of tactics.8221;

Writing in the Jordanian daily al-Rai, analyst Mohammad Kharroub noted that the US intelligence report 8220;opens the door wide to numerous 8216;compromises8217; between Washington and Tehran in light of stalemates over explosive files Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine that have exhausted Washington. This stalemate has left Washington exposed and naked politically, diplomatically but especially militarily.8221;

In Lebanon, for example, Iran8217;s backing of the militant group Hezbollah has hampered US and Saudi efforts to strengthen embattled Prime Minister Fouad Sinora. The nation8217;s political parties have been unable to agree on a president for months, leading to increased fears of factional fighting. The problem is further agitated by Iran8217;s ally Syria, which wants to maintain its influence by undermining pro-Western candidates.

8220;There is no doubt that following this report, Iran will feel more at ease,8221; said Habib Fayyad, a Beirut-based political analyst and expert on Iran.

Oussama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, said Tehran had outflanked Washington on Lebanese politics even before the intelligence assessment.

8220;The US intelligence report might give Iran more credibility and legitimacy regarding its policy in Lebanon. But Iran already holds all the cards in Lebanon and needs to keep these cards very close to its chest for more geopolitical gains,8221; Safa said. 8220;Iran already plays the role of a spoiler in Lebanon and will continue doing so.8221;