Oil enough for 2 months, LPG scarce

But the industry expects no supply glitches as maintenance shutdowns at LPG extraction plants of ONGC, Oil India Ltd and Gail India Ltd have been called off and Gail has been told to maximise butane output instead of commercial propane.

Domestic refineries have also been told to maximise crude oil processing to keep the LPG output flowing even if it results in increased production and exports of surplus products like petrol and diesel.

In November, the NSC secretariat had told the Petroleum Ministry to maintain oil and product inventories ‘‘equal to about eight weeks domestic consumption’’ since there was a possibility of military action by the US against Iraq by February.

The NSC directive has been followed in toto for crude oil where emergency imports have been contracted to raise the existing stocks of 2.948 million tonnes (12 days cover) by another 3.168 million (13 days). Once refined, the crude oil stocks will provide additional cover of 22.5 days for LPG.

Barring the crude oil and LPG, the country is floating with petrol, diesel, kerosene and aviation turbine fuel (ATF). In fact, petrol and diesel are being exported out of the country by Indian Oil and Reliance, respectively, to avoid containment problems. At present, petrol stocks stand at 770,000 tonnes or 33 days cover, diesel at 3.416 million tonnes (32 days), kerosene at 832,000 tonnes (28 days) and ATF at 332,000 tonnes (54 days). Current crude oil levels will provide an additional cover of 41 days for petrol, 32 days for diesel, 28 days for kerosene and 36 days for ATF.

Indian refineries are highly dependent on crude oil from abroad with import dependence of 69 per cent, mostly from the Middle East region. Any conflict between US and Iraq could disrupt the flow of crude from the Middle East resulting in supply glitches in the country.