Now, Pak and China

As the political class pores over the text of the 123 agreement, it is all too easy for New Delhi to forget the global character of the Indo-US nuclear deal. For nearly two years, a self-absorbed and divided India quarrelled over the minutiae of the nuclear talks with Washington. The nation needs to draw together, as the nuclear initiative moves from the bilateral arena to the global. Until now, the focus of the debate was necessarily on India8217;s separation plan, the Hyde Act, and the 123 Agreement that sought to translate the law into a mutually acceptable bilateral framework.

Virtually all the major nations in the international community will have a say in the next stages of implementing the deal. The 35-member Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will have to approve a special safeguards agreement with India and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must endorse the deal before it goes back to the US Congress. It will be no cakewalk to get past these three stages. The very ambitious scope of this agreement 8212; a revision of the non-proliferation regime to accommodate just one country, India 8212; is inviting strong opposition. In Washington, arms controllers have already begun to campaign that the Bush Administration has 8216;sold out8217; to India once again; this time on the 123 Agreement. This might come as a rude shock for the Indian Left and Right who have been taking cheap shots at the UPA and downplaying the implications of the deal for regional and global balance of power.

European liberals share many of the concerns expressed by the American non-proliferation community that there should be no country-specific exemptions in a rule-based global order. Together they might join forces with China in insisting that if the non-proliferation regime is to be changed at all, it should be on the basis of universal criteria. Pakistan is desperate for a similar deal that preserves a much-vaunted nuclear parity with India. Islamabad8217;s warnings that the Indo-US nuclear deal will set off a nuclear arms race in Asia have begun to find international resonance. As a potentially dangerous coalition gathers against India, New Delhi must keep its head down and reach out to new constituencies in the US and Europe. At the very moment the US is differentiating between India and Pakistan, New Delhi has a good reason to intensify the peace process with Islamabad. At the same time, India must also warn Beijing that its overt and covert campaign against the nuclear deal will have unpredictable consequences for bilateral relations.