Never say never

The BJP can take some solace from the fact they retained Madhya Pradesh. But in an aggregate assessment this result is a significant victory for the Congress; they were fighting against the odds in the sense that the two big issues, inflation and security, were expected to go against them. They were not given much of a chance in Delhi; and they have dented a key state for the BJP, Rajasthan. But taken collectively, this vote is a demand for sobriety, discrimination and judgment. Both political parties are still on notice: it would be hazardous indeed to draw large and confident conclusions about national trends. Analysts, even more than politicians, need to approach the Indian voter with a great deal of humility. But the fact that the BJP did not manage to take even Delhi suggests that on the face of it, that party will have a steeper hill to climb.

In some ways, this election is bringing to the fore the depth of the crisis in the BJP. It has a serious problem with Vajpayee8217;s departure. Any national leader has to bring to the stage at least some of the following qualities: outright charisma, an ability to act statesmanlike and draw in wide constituencies, a credible track record, or an ability to create a unified organisation. Advani is consistently showing that at this point in his career he has none of these qualities. It is this, perhaps more than anything else that explains the inability of the BJP to tap into the national mood. The BJP8217;s strategy, in a place like Delhi, was in part premised on linking national issues to local politics. But it has little credibility left on national issues. To start with, it has no monopoly on national security. It will be tempting to conclude that this election was fought over development or corruption rather than over terrorism. But this would be simplistic. It was fought more over who could provide credible government with all the complexity that entails, a theme that cuts across issues. The more radical conclusion for the BJP now will be that it is no longer itself a national party; it is a series of regional power configurations which the national leadership is in no position to shape or control. And these defeats will only make its internal coherence problems even worse.

Mizoram was a foregone conclusion, but the biggest surprise, to most observers, was Delhi. In Delhi, there was a strong sentiment, even amongst BJP supporters, that it was hard to accept Vijay Kumar Malhotra8217;s credibility. Someone memorably described the contest in Delhi as one between an occasionally fallible but fundamentally decent government, and a projection of empty machismo. And the former won. For all her imperfections, Sheila Dikshit is still seen as agent of forward looking change: at least she has projects we can discuss. Her victory is all the more creditable because literally everything was supposed to be stacked against her: the BSP playing spoiler, upper-middle-class backlash over the BRT. Malhotra has the same deficiencies as Advani: two leaders cast in the Sangh8217;s political mould, and who cannot transcend it. Even if terrorism and security are the issues, the Indian electorate has realised that real institutional reform rather than decades old rhetoric is the way to tackle it.

In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia ran the most presumptuously personalised administration in the history of the state, confusing excise and real estate rackets with development, and paid the price. In Madhya Pradesh the Congress has long suffered from too many leaders, each too clever by half. It is to Shivraj Singh Chouhan8217;s great credit that he recognised his comparative advantages and worked well within them. He worked within the party structure, not against it; he concentrated on projecting a few straightforward schemes, and seems to have nurtured the BJP base from the ground up. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress was reluctant to take a risk on new faces and new ideas, and thus suffered. The trend suggests that the Congress can still put up a good show in Madhya Pradesh, but it will have to jettison its old guard which has become a noose around its neck. Chhattisgarh was a classic conflict between two local power brokers but Raman Singh seems to have managed to again showcase his schemes.

Some would argue that the momentum behind parties like the BSP was vastly exaggerated. The scope of breakaway factions like Uma Bharati8217;s is also quite limited. In that sense people are looking towards voting in effective governments, not a politics of undisciplined protest. But if Rajasthan is any guide, the BSP will remain small but not insignificant and unambiguous in its effects.

History tells us that it would be hazardous to read too much into these elections. Four months is a long time in Indian politics. But for a moment there is a sense of palpable relief. A huge loss for the Congress would have driven it to desperation, and parties in desperation often do ill-advised things. On the other hand, a clean sweep for the Congress would have made it too complacent. If there is any lesson in this election for all political parties it is this: there is now no predetermined template that can unlock the mysteries of the Indian electorate; in that sense our politics has become truly contingent. This is the ultimate triumph of democracy.

The writer is president, Centre for Policy Research, Delhi

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