Move on, Mrs Lot

The problem with Israel8217;s politics is the downgrading of democratic institutions over time. A list of Israel8217;s most powerful compiled by The Marker a Ha8217;aretz publication on September 2, featured only bureaucrats and successful entrepreneurs, to the exclusion of any elected representative. On the other hand, Israel8217;s proportional representational system gives disproportionate power to fringe groups. Therefore, the Kadima primaries and subsequent elections must perform the important function of restoring moral legitimacy to the Knesset. This at a time when Israel suffers its biggest leadership crisis and real and specious dangers from the demographic 8220;time bomb8221; to the Iranian nuclear project cloud the horizon.

Under the circumstances, would Israel benefit from a leader who represents continuity, as Livni does, or from a leader who might prove unpredictable and take radical decisions, as Shaul Mofaz might? They have both been opportunists. It8217;s just that, in retrospect, Livni appears to be less so. Livni was once a member of the rightwing youth movement, Beitar, and she was a Sharon prodigy, raised in the Likud. When Kadima was founded in 2005 she chose to go with her mentor and is today as centrist as Kadima should have been. Mofaz had sent out a letter to Likud members urging them not to go with Sharon when he split Likud, but himself joined Kadima the same night. But, ideologically, Mofaz remains in Likud, talks of attacking Iran and not negotiating peace in the light of Olmert and Livni. He is a status quoist, who might just indulge in a misadventure when he chooses.

The case against Livni is her short legislative career and perceived lack of experience. But a cautious approach is often an indicator of growing political maturity. Olmert8217;s apologists say that the talks with Syria, as well as the effort to define the contours of a Palestinian state, are achievements the outgoing prime minister is not given credit for. His detractors argue that talks with Syria never produce results, and the current round has only legitimised Syria after Rafik Hariri8217;s assassination and brought it out of international isolation. Witness the French accommodation of Bashar al-Assad, they say.

The challenge for the new Israeli prime minister is to keep talking to Assad and Abbas, but doing so without appearing to compromise fruitlessly. This is where Tzipi Livni comes in. Livni has already indicated that although she intends to continue negotiations with Fatah, there will be no evacuation of settlers without deciding the Palestinian state8217;s boundaries. On the other hand, unlike Mofaz, she has carefully avoided statements about the inevitability of an Israeli strike on Iran. Thus, paradoxically, if Livni a woman, and a civilian like Olmert and unlike Mofaz wins, it will mean Israel is recovering from the chaos of the Olmert years.

But if Mofaz wins, whatever fast moves he makes, he may still not be capable of holistic leadership. His victory is likely to split Kadima, with Livni taking the biggies with her and forming a party more reflective of the Kadima that never was. Then it would be a walkover for Binyamin Netanyahu8217;s Likud in the elections. Livni doesn8217;t intend to call elections immediately after she is chosen. That way, the process of negotiation and the two-state solution get another chance before Likud returns. And Likud is coming back, as the flight of political opportunists to Netanyahu8217;s office indicates. Ironically, since Kadima is amorphous, confused and confusing, its voters are the closest to the mainstream Israeli aspirations of the day.

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