Mother of all coups

Sonia Gandhi, whose political instincts are supposed to be sharp, had wanted to takeover without a controversy. But since it could not be avoided, she mitigated the damage by calling on Kesri for his 8220;blessings8221;.

This is probably the first time she has called on a Congress leader. Otherwise even prime minister P V Narasimha Rao used to go to meet her.

It is clear that Sonia felt the need to strike before the CPP meet on Monday. As the Congress President, it is she who will preside over the meeting to elect the parliamentary party leader. In all probability, she will be asked to become thechairperson8217; of the CPP and nominate the floor leaders of the party in the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha. Manmohan Singh and Sharad Pawar are tipped for the posts.

She is also likely to contest for the Lok Sabha in the weeks to come, and takeover both wings of the party.

With chacha in the saddle, the intiative would have rested in his hands. Only yesterday he was talking about his close links with Jayalalitha, when she had withheld her letter of support to Atal behari Vajpayi. Surjeet,who had jumped the gun by announcing the Left8217;s support to the Congress, had been moving in tandem with Kesri till he was pulled up by his party.

It does not suit Sonia to allow a Congress leader other than her to head a government in the 12th Lok Sabha because it will go to create a rival power centre. Pawar has also been lobbying with MPs and he is considered a natural claimant this time, with the party having fared well in Maharashtra.

Sonia is not unaware that the Left and some other UF partners will not supporther. She would like the party to sit in the Opposition, conscious of the inherent instabilty of a fractured mandate. Everyone knows that the going will get rough for Vajpayee, not only because of the contradictions he faces within the alliance, but also because of the economic crisis that looms large for whoever takes over. It does not require a pundit to predict that the chances of a stable government in this Lok Sabha are bleak.

Sonia is making a bid for the next round. With her takeover as party president today, the chances of a Congress-led government in this Lok sabha recede.

If she assumes leadership in the Opposition, it will give her an opportunity to occupy the anti-BJP space in the country8217;s polity. This is bad news for the United Front.

More important, the BJP will have to do business with Sonia directly for the passage of any legislation in the House. This would make the saffron forces less confrontationist towards her. She will want her pound of flesh and crucial decisions such as thereview of the SPG Act are coming up in a few months8217; time. Sonia8217;s biggest challenge however is to revive the Congress.

The 141 tally reflects the real strength of the party. The Congress got that many seats after she had enthused the party workers, halted the erosion that was taking place, united the various factions,and firmed up the traditional Congress voter. She was a factor inside the Congress. Whether or not she was a vote-getter in the country is difficult to quantify. She will have to rebuild the organisation in states like UP, Bihar but this is a tall order. It was easier to manage the party when it was in government. Congressmen are in the habit of using state power for party work. That is why they find it so difficult to reconcile being in the opposition.

Indira Gandhi bounced back in 1980.But for all the similarity in the style of the two women, there is a vast difference between Sonia and her mother in law. Indira Gandhi spoke the language and could identify with people. Sonia has to rely onissuing press statements and reading her prepared speeches. She is probably the first president of a national party, and that too a 113 year old one, who has not met the press so far.

Above all, her handicap is that she does not know many people in the party. And even if she knows some by name,she is not familiar with their backgrounds or their loyalty charts which is necessary to run an organisation like the Congress. She will therefore need a good team. How well or badly she fares ultimately depends on her.

The emergence of Sonia Gandhi in Congress affairs heralds the return of the Nehru-Gandhi family.This means that many of the relatively younger leaders will have to play second fiddle to the family now at least for the next 15-20 years, if not more. They have tasted freedom in the last 7 years.