Monitoring the I-word

On the face of it, the statement by External Affairs Minister Yashwant Singh that infiltration across the LoC has reverted to pre-May 27 lev...

On the face of it, the statement by External Affairs Minister Yashwant Singh that infiltration across the LoC has reverted to pre-May 27 levels gives the impression of a lack of coherence at the top levels of the government. Islamabad, naturally, has jumped to draw mileage out of it. A closer examination would indicate that a contradiction does not necessarily exist between the earlier statements of the defence minister and the army chief on the one hand, and that of Yashwant Sinha, on the other.

Two weeks have elapsed since George Fernandes stated that infiltration across the LoC had nearly ended. This, however, does not imply that it was a permanent phenomenon. In fact, every observer of the situation has been emphasising that infiltration is not easy to judge without reliable sensors. So we don8217;t need a ball-to-ball commentary on infiltration, we need constant monitoring and vigilance.

We also need to be clear about what we expect from Islamabad. General Musharraf has committed his country to permanently ending cross-border infiltration and terrorism. And any sign that this is not being put into practice must be highlighted since it reflects on Islamabad8217;s sincerity. But for every one infiltrator and/or terrorist caught or killed near the LoC, there would be many who get through.

The dark hours of night or inclement weather could provide them with many opportunities to make their way into this country. Thus fluctuations in the incidence of known infiltration should be expected.

While infiltration can at best be one indicator of the trends in cross-border terrorism, the other is the closing down of camps and sanctuaries inside Pakistan. But the real issue is the end of cross-border terrorism.

Unlike infiltration and the closing of camps, which would be affected by many uncertainties, the actual drop and stoppage of terrorism in India would remain a clearly identifiable and quantifiable phenomenon. While we must demand that Islamabad permanently stops cross-border terrorism and its infrastructure and funding, any short-term policy response must really be related to the actual level of terrorist violence.

This is also crucial for the free and fair elections scheduled to be held in J038;K in a few months8217; time. Here the evidence does not provide any cause for optimism, at least not so far. Musharraf has reportedly made some changes in the ISI and this could lead to real changes in the strategy of cross-border terrorists.

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But more fundamental reforms in the ISI and the infrastructure supporting jehadi terrorism would be needed for any meaningful change towards peace.