MODIFICATION

Modi certainly enjoys the big moment. From the arrival of the Narmada waters to Kutch to more formal occasions like Independence Day or Gujarat Formation Day, he has the unerring capacity to convert every event into one that focuses on a single individual 8212; himself.

The best example of this was, of course, the 2002 state election 8212; where Modi ensured he made himself the candidate, the issue, the incumbent, the underdog, the faultline.

VIBRANT Gujarat has been part of his persistent attempt to repackage himself, not as a hardline Hindutva man but as an administrator who talks good economics and better development. Not everybody is convinced, some see it as hype.

Indeed, when Vibrant Gujarat saw its first installment in September 2003, the scars of the riots the previous year were very visible. Business confidence in the state was decidedly ebbing. Gujarat clearly had an image problem, even if the government didn8217;t want to admit it.

During Navratri 2004, Modi tried a new tack. He sought to sell Gujarat to foreigners and NRIs as a fun place, a tourist attraction, home to the world8217;s 8216;8216;longest dance festival8217;8217;.

This past week saw the 2005 Investors8217; Summit 8212; phase III of the refurbishing mission. In many ways, it indicated how things had changed, moved on really from the dark and sombre mood of three years ago.

THE first investors8217; summit in 2003 had an emotional tinge to it; the recent one was more businesslike. The first summit attracted several non-resident Gujaratis, part of the BJP8217;s and Modi8217;s overseas adherents. It was an act of political solidarity, they invested nothing.

This time the project profiles were prepared by consultants like Ernst and Young and AT Kearney. 8216;8216;We are presenting facts and seek to attract investment on that strength alone,8217;8217; Modi said at the pre-summit press conference and, as usual, took only those questions that he wanted to answer.

Neither was he ready to give details of what became of the MoUs signed in 2003. Investment promises worth Rs 66,000 crore had come in at the first Vibrant Gujarat gathering. As it transpires, projects worth Rs 6,470 crore have actually gone into production. Of the remaining MoUs, the government clubs Rs 48,064 crore under one head: 8216;8216;projects under implementation8217;8217;.

What you make of these figures is usually dependent on whom you vote for. On his part, principal secretary D. Rajgopalan says more investment will certainly materialise from the MoUs signed in 2003, but it may take time.

THE first summit had its share of tokenism. Organised one year after the post-Godhra riots, it had three stalls showcasing Gujarat8217;s minorities. The following year, the Navratri extravaganza had an exhibition on Islamic shrines.

This year saw Modi 8212; facing rebellion a few months ago, and accused by some MLAs of reducing government to a one-man show 8212; more confident. There was no exposition on anything remotely religious; it only figured as part of a tourism-related exhibition.

From Gujarat8217;s 1,600 kilometre coastline to Mahatma Gandhi, from the state8217;s ports to Sardar Patel 8212; every calling card was put to use. Yet some habits die hard. At one point during the summit, an announcer rather brusquely declared, 8216;8216;Please cut down on formalities, announce your projects immediately.8217;8217; As a courtship of investors, it was a bit unorthodox, given among the industrialists present were Mukesh Ambani and Shashi Ruia.

Yet at the inauguration itself business barons made promises worth Rs 51,000 crore. 8216;8216;Narendra Modi is passionate and combines modern outlook with Gujarat8217;s ethos,8217;8217; said Ambani. The chief minister couldn8217;t stop smiling.

8216;8216;The state8217;s geographical area is just six per cent of the country, its population five per cent. But it accounts for 21 per cent exports from the country,8217;8217; Ambani went on. At the valedictory function, Modi stuck to the soft approach: 8216;8216;The state does not run on an individual8217;s whims. We are committed to progress.8217;8217;

No one spoke of riots anymore, only business. Even prohibition was touted as an advantage, though foreign investors seemed to differ!

EVEN so the figures in themselves mean little. Much of the investment was in the pipeline anyway, or would have come with the economic scenario looking up nationwide. As Gautam Adani, chairman of the Rs 14,000 crore Adani Group, was frank enough say, 8216;8216;We would have invested even otherwise but hype helps. Such efforts will start showing in three to four years.8217;8217;

8216;8216;A little here and there always happens, but there are inquiries and there will be follow up,8217;8217; said Sameer Patel, secretary of Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry, responding to criticism that investment that had anyway come in was announced at the summit to boost its 8216;8216;success rate8217;8217;.

Modi says he8217;s amused by the criticism: 8216;8216;Two years ago nobody spoke of how much investment we were attracting. With signing of MoUs, now everyone wants to know the results. Even we want the same.8217;8217;

He says the idea behind such summits is simple: when industrialists commit to investment publicly, they are under pressure to deliver. On the other hand, bureaucrats have MoUs to follow up and be held accountable for.

AS a precursor to the summit, Modi and his ministers went abroad, seeking investment from NRIs, especially non-resident Gujaratis. Not many of them made any commitments during the summit, but the government says it8217;s not worried. Rather, it points to investments by British Gas and Shell.

These companies have been around for a long time in Gujarat. But as chief secretary P.K. Laheri has it, even if they put in more rupees 8212; rather than dollars 8212; it shows foreign investor confidence.

Nigel Shaw, country manager of British Gas, was cautiously optimistic: 8216;8216;Such events help. Many who were not interested a year ago would definitely show up.8217;8217;

So has Modi turned the corner in terms of image transformation? Niggling problems remain. One MNC country head was a little irritated that Modi, BJP president L.K. Advani and Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat all spoke in Hindi at the opening function: 8216;8216;How do you plan to attract foreign investment if all three of your leading speakers speak in Hindi.8217;8217; The semiotics could do with some finetuning.

The funny thing is at the 2003 investors8217; summit, Modi read out a prepared speech in English.

WHAT is the big picture? Immediate cynicism would point to analogies. Gujarat was the state that gave India the concept of the lok adalat. The institution is often criticised, because cases settled out of court are shown as having been resolved by k adalats.

The Vibrant Gujarat meet could well draw similar criticism 8212; exaggerating numbers by adding investment that was in any case coming in. It doesn8217;t require genius to realise no industrialist would commit investment worth crores, or thousands of crores, at the drop of a hat, just because an investors8217; jamboree is happening.

But the arrangement is a cosy one. Industry gets mileage and can hope to keep the government in good humour. The government awards itself credit for organising the meet.

Yet beyond this nitpicking there is a larger message. Modi has ensured that, at least publicly, no businessman talks about riots or any social problems in Gujarat. In fact, some businessmen at the summit posed quite another question: what will happen if Modi were to lose the chief ministership? There is no one else in the government with his mass appeal and zeal.

8216;8216;I wonder what will happen if political changes take place,8217;8217; said an executive of the Torrent Group. Thinking aloud, he wondered if the 8216;8216;passion could be institutionalised8217;8217;.

That is the sort of question business heads ask of reformist or strong chief ministers anywhere. If Modi is being seen in these terms, it is a victory for him. To that degree, his image makeover is working.

FROM energy and power to, that old workhorse, petrochemicals, from the new buzz called textiles to tourism: Gujarat has signed up MoUs across business areas. Some of the MoUs don8217;t evoke confidence. Fantastic tourism proposals were announced at the 2003 summit. Nothing came of them.

Modi8217;s rivals are, of course, waiting for similar failure this time. The Congress, which tried to force the government to cancel the investors8217; summit as a mark of respect to the tsunami victims, is clearly not impressed.

Sabarkantha MP Madhusudan Mistry Congress has a different take on the state8217;s economy. Since 1991, he says, investment worth Rs 1.56 lakh crore has come to Gujarat, nearly half of it from government companies.

Of the Rs 84,234 crore private investment as much as Rs 73,931 crore has been by Indian companies and only Rs 10,304 crore has come as FDI.

Meanwhile, says Mistry, government expenditure and debt burden are ballooning. The Rs 11,976 crore debt burden in 1996-97 has shot up to Rs 52,294 crore in 2003-04, he says.

Modi8217;s friends dismiss it as typical Congress carping. Somewhere between those two extremes, lies Gujarat8217;s truth.