Mindreading Musharraf

Dictators are not people with big hearts 8212; you can8217;t afford such luxury in their business 8212; but many of them are practical people. They live in fear of their lives and therefore usually have a good sense of what is good for their backsides. They do not indulge their likely challengers 8212; also, by implication, likely executioners 8212; with charity, pity and generosity. Why then has Musharraf let Sharif go now? Was this an act of weakness or strength? Has he done so to buy temporary political respite, or to consolidate his position for a long innings in power? What wisdom is India to draw from this on the state of his mind, of the way he may do business with us in future?

Contrary to what he promises while staging a coup, no dictator believes in a short tenure and a subsequent return to democracy of any kind 8212; unless it institutionalises his role at the top. Zia had promised he would return to the barracks after 90 days, he lasted nine years, of course with some help from the two superpowers 8212; Soviets because they invaded Afghanistan, Americans because they became sponsors of the resultant jehad. Musharraf promised no more than two years. If he had any plans of turning over power to any civilian, he wouldn8217;t have given the Sharif family its one-way ticket to Riyadh.

First of all, his latest action confirms the fact that he now sees himself as a ruler of Pakistan for a long time. He is just 53, enjoying the power and the pusillanimity of his politicians and the so-called constitutional system and settling down for a long innings. In his profession, he may have trained to be a commando. But political powerplay, as he has rightly understood, is no hit-and-run business and there is no glory for sneak-attackers, howsoever successful. Unlike a commando, you can8217;t turn your back to leave the conventional forces to take over. You8217;ve got to hold the ground, fight off counterattacks, and what better way of doing that than sending the likely opposition in exile?

As a very young colonel or a brigadier, he must have seen from close quarters the problems Zia had with the Movement for Restoration of Democracy MRD which forced him to hold elections 8212; even if partyless 8212; and let Benazir return from exile. He also realises that the times have changed and, unlike Zia, he could not have used the instrument of judicial assassination against the man he deposed. The option of execution no longer being politically feasible, he has chosen the next best tactic: Banish your likely challenger in such a way as to completely destroy his political credibility while, at the same, earning some brownie points at home and abroad. With this one step he has nipped the biggest threat to his regime, the coming together of the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Muslim League. Now, the leaders of both are in exile. One has gone away with his wife, the other has been away leaving her very unpopular husband in Musharraf8217;s jail. Neither of the two yet has progeny old enough to build a freshpolitical challenge. That should make Musharraf feel comfortable, at least domestically, in the foreseeable future.

But, besides domestic political security, there is another thing dictators need sooner or later, and that is international legitimacy. This applies all over the world, the reason why the Iranian clergy is forced to hold elections and bring in a democratisation of sorts or why Suharto had to loosen his grip. Closer home, this is exactly why Mrs Gandhi had to lift the Emergency and hold elections or Zia had to let Benazir return from exile even when there was no immediate pressure to do so. Dictators believe such calculated acts of generosity can bring them international legitimacy without which they cannot survive in a globalising world.

That, most likely, is Musharraf8217;s reasoning as well. If he believes that liberty for Nawaz would bring him acceptability in the Arab world, could he then be persuaded to accept that a more reasonable policy vis-a-vis India would bring him legitimacy on the larger world stage? Just a year ago he had to suffer the humiliation of Bill Clinton wagging his finger at him 8212; a public dressing down of a Third World dictator unusual even for an American president. Could the quot;new, improvedquot; Musharraf now get a more civilised audience with a new US president?

If legitimacy is his concern, and if this is what his latest move on the Sharif family signifies, there may be an opportunity for us to exploit. He can only be one of two things: A bloodthirsty jehadi nurturing fantasies of conquering Kashmir, breaking up India and ruling Pakistan for ever; or a 53-year-old dictator with the usual insecurities and the need for international recognition. If the latter is the case, it should be possible for Indian and big power diplomacy to work in that direction. I have made this point in the past but it deserves repetition 8212; also to Musharraf. Of the four dictators Pakistan has had so far, two Bhutto and Zia have been assassinated. The other two Ayub and Yahya were removed in disgrace after losing wars to India. There isn8217;t a third way a dictator has gone in Pakistan and there should be no reason for Musharraf to believe he would certainly buck the trend.

India, and the world at large, have to work on this. Musharraf needs to be convinced that he will never win a war, whether of low or high intensity, over Kashmir. And unless he engages in a practical, workable solution with India, there will be no legitimacy, acceptability, political or even physical survival. His move on Nawaz probably indicates he is not an irrational fanatic and has a keen sense of what is good for his future. If this is a correct reading of his mind, there must at least be an opening for diplomacy, ours and that of the friendly powers.

No dictator believes in a short tenure. If Musharraf had any plans of turning over power to a civilian, he wouldn8217;t have given the Sharif family its one-way ticket to Riyadh

Of the four dictators Pakistan has had, two have been assassinated, another two were removed in disgrace. There should be no reason for Musharraf to believe he would buck the trend