In for a penny

The two further nuclear tests at Pokharan on Wednesday give a clear enough indication that the government8217;s mind is working in the right direction. The signal is heartening and the tests are to be welcomed. It seems almost certain that the government wants to go ahead and sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 8212; when it is good and ready. That is, after completing its test programme, which it says is now the case. The second round of tests required even greater spunk than the first and a determination to put India8217;s interests first. The international reaction after the first round was hardly unexpected but even so a government could have been forgiven for losing its nerve. That it has not done so is commendable. The euphoric public reception to the first round, though not for the most sober of reasons, has surely helped this resolve along.

The fact of the matter is that having taken the plunge on May 11 it would have been foolish for India to buckle to international outrage and desist from further testingif the experts felt that it was still required. It would have been tantamount to having the worst of both worlds on the nuclear issue: paying the full price for testing in the teeth of world opposition and still failing to go the whole hog to guarantee its security. This sort of dithering and muddle is exactly what has characterised Indian nuclear policy in the past. India has paid the price of being a known nuclear have, of refusing to sign various nuclear disarmament agreements, while denying itself the advantages of being a declared one. That changed on May 11. The latest tests are an assertion that the country is set upon doing all it must to ensure its security and not crumble at the first sign of fully expected punishment, which it has already assessed that it can live with.

Wednesday8217;s developments are a logical culmination of the direction that Indian nuclear policy has taken in recent days. Having decided to brazen out international opprobrium it makes eminent sense to complete as many tests as ittakes and then to sign the CTBT from a position of strength. This is exactly what France and China did in the run-up to the CTBT. They acceded only after making sure that their nuclear programme would not suffer from a ban on further tests by making possible their full computer simulation first. The only puzzling thing remains the Indian government8217;s reiteration that it is willing to adhere to certain parts of the CTBT rather than saying that it will sign unconditionally. Yet too much need not, perhaps, be read into that. President Clinton has demanded India8217;s unconditional accession to this treaty and America may not countenance anything short of that. But India8217;s current position is, as likely as not, a negotiating stance which could become more accommodating if the world community, and especially America, agrees to soften the blow of sanctions and other action. India can now well afford to be seen to be conciliatory and accede fully to the CTBT. Indeed it would be disadvantageous in the extreme for it notto do so. Fortunately there seems little indication that this government is inclined to follow such a course but it must nevertheless be warned against spoiling a brave enterprise, well executed.