Hurricane Hawk

After a year in the political wilderness and despite an ongoing battle with a chronic heart ailment, Geelani has succeeded in redrawing the entire landscape of separatist politics. His unambiguous stand, his rigidity on talks with New Delhi, his pessimism on changes in the ground situation are all assets for him in a scenario where everything 8212; and almost everyone 8212; has failed in Kashmir.

Consider his stand on the talks between the moderates and New Delhi. He publicly opposed the talks, warning the doves they would lead nowhere. After eight months, and severe damage to the reputation and credibility of moderate leaders Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Abdul Gani Lone, Moulvi Abbas Ansari and others, his words hold the air of a prophecy.

With a little help from the new UPA government, of course. Mirwaiz and his team agreed on talks with the Centre despite stiff resistance from Pakistan as well as the militants. But their demand of holding talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh 8212; which would have raised the profile of the dialogue 8212; was shot down; simultaneously, a new offer of talks with all Kashmiri groups was issued, undermining the Hurriyat doves8217; position.

There was more: A demand for the release of political prisoners was not considered seriously, as was their appeal for redressal of human rights abuses.

The rejections were compounded by New Delhi8217;s failure to make even symbolic gestures of sincerity and willingness to resolve the problem. Instead, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil issued a statement, saying that any talks with the Hurriyat would be conducted 8216;8216;within the four walls of the Constitution8217;8217;, a semantic trap even the BJP had avoided.

The conclusions were inescapable: Patil either did not understand the ramifications of his statement 8212; especially as the moderate leaders had been selling the 8220;unconditional talks8221; idea in Kashmir 8212; or he, like many other Congress leaders, is simply stuck in the rut of an ancient Kashmir policy.

The moderates reacted immediately, but before the damage could be controlled, Patil8217;s junior minister Shriprakash Jaiswal travelled to Kashmir and emphasised that very 8216;8216;talks within the Constitution8217;8217; point. Even as Mirwaiz and his colleagues looked for a place to hide, External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh went a step ahead to declare that New Delhi didn8217;t need the Hurriyat.

The Congress-led UPA government, mutters one Kashmiri anaylst, treats Kashmir like Maharashtra, exhausting all its energies on protecting the fragile truce among the coalition partners of the Mufti Mohammed Sayeed government.

What was most telling perhaps was the way Singh postponed what would have been his first prime ministerial visit to Srinagar on September 15. Just two days before the visit, the Jammu and Kashmir government reminded the PMO that there were four byelections coming up in Kashmir and the Election Commission could object to Singh8217;s public rally.

Ironically, the EC issued the notifications for the polls in August and two of the by-elections are being held to replace Congress MLAs who resigned after being elected to Parliament.

Two years after a brief hiatus in the wake of the Mufti8217;s assumption of office at the head of the Congress-People8217;s Democratic Party alliance, Kashmir is on the brink again. The death count averages 15 a day and, for the people of Kashmir, nothing has really changed as a few more of their leaders are exposed to be ineffective and, thus, irrelevant.

In this quagmire, Geelani 8212; abandoned even by his parent organisation the Jamat-e-Islami 8212; stands out as one leader who sticks to his point of view. Disillusioned with both the moderate leadership and New Delhi, a huge chunk of the separatist leadership has rallied around him, making Geelani the strongest separatist voice in the Valley.

The Jamat has not only joined his Hurriyat Conference but even allowed him to float a new organisation. The People8217;s League, another important member of the united Hurriyat8217;s top decision-making executive committee, too is behind him.

Pakistan has had a role in the rise of Geelani. Sidelined by the moderates, the Pakistanis now back the septuagenarian as the only 8216;8216;trustworthy8217;8217; figure among the the Kashmiri separatists, and his new Hurriyat as the only real separatist conglomerate.

Pakistan is now reportedly trying to convince Mirwaiz 8212; the head priest of Kashmir with a substantial following in downtown Srinagar 8212; and JKLF supremo Yasin Malik, whose pro-independence politics has a strong support base across Kashmir, to fall in line.

To top it all, Geelani exerts considerable influence on the entire militant movement. The United Jihad Council 8212; the umbrella organisation for almost all militant outfits 8212; has already declared him to be the sole leader of Kashmir8217;s separatist movement. The Hizbul Mujahideen is very close to him, even the jihadi groups defer to his reputation as an longstanding, uncompromising Islamist leader.

In fact, Geelani is fast emerging as a sort of Sheikh Yasin of Kashmir. Like the spiritual leader of the Hamas, he has a dedicated following and a message that attracts a major chunk of separatist politics and the entire militant movement. It is not a happy augury for India.

Geelani believes Kashmir to be a religious issue. He considers all bilateral talks to be futile and seeks a tripartite dialogue involving Pakistan as well as representatives of Kashmir.

In fact, even before talking about talks, he wants New Delhi to accept Kashmir as a disputed territory through a resolution in Parliament. He does not believe CBMs 8212; like opening the Srinagar-Muzzafarabad road 8212; will make a difference. His CBM is to withdraw all army and other security forces from the state.

This might sound impossible for New Delhi. But the truth is that if the Centre now wants a peace process in Kashmir, it cannot avoid Geelani.

And to some degree the UPA government has itself to blame.