How the Left Front survived a swing

The split in the anti-Left vote between the Congress and the BJP had helped the Marxists in 1996 too. But most analyses suggest that a united Congress this time could have wrested close to 20 seats from the Left this time.

As anticipated, the Trinamool Congress lapped up the overwhelmingmajority of the Congress vote in the State. Other than Malda where the party won, the Congress could manage to finish second in only four seats 8212; Raigunj, Jangipur, Murshidabad and Purulia and its ally, the Forward Bloc Socialist in Cooch Behar. Elsewhere the party candidates ended as poor thirds.

But while the Congress wilted in the face of the Mamata wave in Calcutta and its vicinity, the party managed to hold on to a large share of votes in the rural areas. Thus, the Congress still got 60 lakh 16.1 per cent votes, as against the TC8217;s 76.84 lakh 30.6 per cent from 29 constituencies and the BJP8217;s 76.86 lakh 28.5 per cent from 14 constituencies.

This helped the CPIM retain its hold on most of the rural constituencies, proving once again that Jyoti Basu may live in Calcutta but he ruled from the villages. But then, Calcutta had stood by the Congress even in its worst electoral performance in 1977, when the Left swept it off in the rest of the State.

Not that Mamata herself did not anticipatethis effect of the split in the Congress vote share. She hoped to offset this by carrying away most of the Congress vote and adding to it the BJP8217;s share.

It will never be known how much BJP votes TC candidates got and how much TC votes went to the BJP8217;s kitty, because they were allies. Obviously, the BJP rode piggyback on Mamata this time more than the other way around.

But three contests, where the BJP and the TC fought each other, make an interesting study. In two of these, the BJP secured more votes than the TC.

In Midnapore, where Union Home Minister and CPI nominee, Indrajit Gupta, won with the highest margin 2.75 lakh in the State, the BJP candidate came second with 1,77,000 votes and the TC third with 1,31,000. The Congress nominee stood fourth with just 90,000.

In the Galsi Assembly by-election, where also the TC and the BJP fought each other, the latter was way ahead of the former. Both Midnapore and Galsi are rural constituencies. But in the Assembly by-election in Jagatdal, an industrialarea closer to Calcutta, the TC got more votes than the BJP.

Mamata8217;s battleground, therefore, shifts to the villages. And, with the panchayat polls slated for the last week of May, she does not have to wait long. She expects most of the remaining Congress vote share to come her way by then.

After neutralising the Congress, the TC-BJP combine can take on the Left in its stronghold. A Congress-United Front tie-up in Delhi will drive the last nail in the coffin of the Congress in West Bengal.

But then the BJP, which gave in to Mamata this time, may not oblige as much in the next round. More so if the saffron brigade rules Delhi.

Encircle the city with villages8221; is a Maoist slogan that used to adorn Calcutta walls during those heady days of the Naxalite movement in the late 8217;60s and early 8217;70s. Shocked by the Mamata wave in urban areas, West Bengal8217;s ruling Marxists had to fall back on the villages yet again in this election.

Since 1977 when the Left Front came to power in the State, the villagesstood by it in all subsequent elections. The first panchayat polls in 1978 saw the Marxists consolidate their position in rural areas.

Land reforms and the panchayats became powerful tools in achieving this, even as unemployment and industrial decline alienated the middle classes and workers from the Left. Besides, the party organisation 8212; and bullying 8212; still works in villages more effectively than in towns.

The last panchayat elections in 1993 showed the gap between the Left and the Congress in the power race in the villages. Of 61,011 gram panchayat seats the Left won 39,232, of which the CPIM8217;s share was 35,328, and the Congress 16,300. Of 9,455 seats in the panchayat samitis, the Left was far ahead 6,873 of the Congress 2,155. In the zila parishad, the Left bagged 572 of the 656 seats, against just 72 of the Congress.

This was in sharp contrast to the voting pattern in the Calcutta municipal corporation elections in 1995 when it was almost a photo finish with the CPIM getting 45.62 percent of the votes and the Congress 45.25 per cent. The race was as close in 1985 too when the Left was actually behind with 44.65 per cent, against 44.97 per cent of the Congress. The Assembly elections over the past two decades have confirmed the same urban-rural divide.

After the spectacular victory of the Trinamool Congress in the parliamentary polls this time, Mamata therefore said the next round of her battle against the Marxists would be fought in the villages. The 8220;personal ledger account scandal8221; which erupted recently, would be her main weapon in that battle. The Marxists have been 8220;cheating8221; villagers by diverting development funds to party coffers and creating their own rural oligarchies.

Jyoti Basu who has pressed the alarm bell over the TC-BJP combine8217;s assault on the Red citadel wants the comrades to put on battle gear forthwith. 8220;If Dum Dum a traditional Red stronghold can fall so can the villages,8221; says Tapan Sikdar, BJP8217;s first ever MP from the State and victor of Dum Dum.