Fortress India

India8217;s decision to have the SAARC summit at Dhaka postponed seems more an act of panic than a well thought out strategy. India has cited two reasons for not attending the summit: the deteriorating security situation in Bangladesh and the recent turn of events in Nepal. Both reasons are not sufficient to warrant postponement of the summit. And the fact that they were cited together only makes the signals India is trying to send more obscure.

The proximate cause of cancelling the summit is the state of emergency in Nepal. But this event is all the more reason to convene a meeting of SAARC. After all, in the long run, the viability of SAARC as an organisation will depend upon its ability to respond to such crisis. It is not a good sign if summits fold up at the sign of political crisis in one of the member states. Nepal will have ramifications for the entire region. Why have a regional forum if it is not up to the task of discussing challenges that arise from regional crises? India8217;s position on democracy in Nepal may not get unanimous consent at SAARC, but that forum could have been more effectively used to communicate India8217;s position to its neighbours. The difference between a strong power and weak one is this. A strong power ought to have full confidence in its position to be able to stand up for itself at multilateral forums. India has given the impression of a singular lack of confidence on this score. Nepal will require sustained attention from India. But such attention would not have been incompatible with the PM attending the SAARC summit. By cancelling the summit we have also frittered away an opportunity to improve relations with Bangladesh. Security in Dhaka is a matter of grave concern. But if India wanted to make that point clearly, it should have communicated its decision a few days ago rather than at the last minute. Relations with Bangladesh have been very difficult, but there had been signs of a breakthrough. Bangladesh8217;s willingness to discuss a pipeline from Myanmar was a positive sign. A SAARC summit at this point would have been an opportunity to give this small opening further momentum. Instead, India has embittered Dhaka even more.

The manner in which the cancellation has been handled suggests that the Indian foreign policy establishment does not have a diplomatic culture that is commensurate with India8217;s power and aspirations. It is difficult to imagine that India will be a significant power if it cannot even manage multilateral forums with its neighbours effectively. Admittedly, our neighbours are not the easiest to deal with. But we should have the determination to strengthen institutions like SAARC that are going to be essential elements of peace and stability in South Asia. By cancelling the summit we have weakened SAARC and projected our own inability to deal with our neighbours.