For and against: Punters say Pak will push nuke button this week

ISLAMABAD, May 18: Punters at the Karachi Stock Exchange were betting on Monday on when Pakistan would go ahead with its nuclear test: the o...

ISLAMABAD, May 18: Punters at the Karachi Stock Exchange were betting on Monday on when Pakistan would go ahead with its nuclear test: the odds are in favour of a test taking place within the week, after the Pakistan foreign secretary returns from China following consultations with senior Chinese officials. One broker, who requested anonymity, said that doubts over Pakistan going ahead with a test were dispelled on Sunday when the Pakistan foreign minister came up with his statement that the questions was 8220;not if but when.8221;

The failure of the world community to react strongly to Indian tests and impose strict sanctions is seen as one of the main reasons for Pakistan to go ahead. 8220;It works both ways: on one hand, it gives credence to the view that the world community will not react as strongly should we test, and on the other it puts pressure on the Prime Minister from people who say that this is the best time to go ahead,8221; said one analyst. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told supporters in Lahorethat internal political compulsions of the BJP forced it to go ahead with the tests. Sharif8217;s response to the Indian tests have been exactly what he promised earlier in the week: 8220;measured and mature8221;.

While the final decision lies with Sharif and his close circle of members of the Defence Committee of the Cabinet DCC which includes the military chiefs and nuclear scientist, Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, it is the political leadership on whose shoulders the responsibility lies if Pakistan proceeds.

Another aspect that seems to have acted as a catalyst were statements by various politicians asking Pakistan to bargain with the West for not going nuclear. Former President Farooq Leghari even suggested that Pakistan should have its external loans, amounting to about 30 billion, written off in exchange for not pushing the button.

But officials at the foreign ministry in Islamabad say that this is an absurd demand. 8220;It does not work that way,8221; said a senior official. While the US hinted at taking the issueof military sanctions under the Pressler Amendment to the Congress should Pakistan not go ahead with the tests, foreign office officials say that there was no 8220;wish list8221; with the Pakistanis when the US delegation came calling last week. Pakistanis are disappointed that the world is not sympathising enough. Thanks to incorrect interpretations of the situation by politicians, many Pakistanis believe that the tests would go ahead because the West has not come up with a juicy enough package.

But both the expected windfall from not having a test and sanctions against India were disappointments for Pakistan. 8220;Sanctions are irrelevant now,8221; comments foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmad. Observers say that the issue of sanctions against India was always viewed in Pakistan from the point of view of whether Pakistan can bear the same should it go ahead with a test. Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz says that a committee is working out the effects of sanctions in the event of a test.

To pressurise Pakistan, a Japanesedelegation did some tough talking in Islamabad on Monday. Japan is Pakistan8217;s biggest aid-giver and has threatened to cut off aid in the event of a test.

Story continues below this ad

Pakistan has now embarked on an offensive to explain its position vis-a-vis India. 8220;We want to put across the dangers faced to Pakistan because of the Indian tests,8221; says Tariq Altaf, spokesman for the foreign office. Parliamentary delegations have been dispatched to explain the country8217;s position.

Analysts say that all this is seen as groundwork being done prior to testing a nuclear device. As people debate over the date of the blasts, economists try and work out the economic cost to a country that is still recovering from previous bad years.

The head of a multi-lateral aid agency in Islamabad says Pak8217;s economic indicators for the year are encouraging after some belt tightening and intelligent moves by the government in 1997 when it came into office. 8220;But Pak8217;s track record is very bad,8221; he adds, saying that whenever there are encouraging signsin the economy, 8220;something or the other happens that puts the country in reverse gear.8221; Unfortunately, this time it8217;s the nuclear option that is raising its head to spoil the party.