First test: Finding his successor

Although there is a great sense of relief at Musharraf8217;s departure, there is also concern about what the future holds for the people. Will the coalition stay together, especially on the issue of selecting the next president and restoration of the judiciary?

In the short term, the biggest test is selecting a fairly neutral person as the president. Pakistan has a tradition of both strong and weak presidents. The strong presidents have always been army men, while the only weak president who also completed his term was Fazal Ilahi Chaudhry who served in the position during the tenure of a strong politician, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. The presidents during the 1990s, on the other hand, were unstable. In this case, the coalition between the PPP and PML-N could come under pressure.

The presidency has served as a critical point of contact between the military and civilian stakeholders. This is another relationship which needs to be strengthened to the advantage of the political government. But the military in today8217;s Pakistan is not any weaker than when Musharraf took over in 1999. It has been moved to the backbenches due to the sensitivity of the moment. However, whether it remains in the background or asserts itself depends on the performance of the civilian regime.

There are those who believe that Musharraf8217;s removal will bring greater instability, especially in the realm of governance, regional ties and the global war on terror GWAT. Such a perception does not take into account the fact that there was already a policy shift during the past six months of Musharraf8217;s rule. One of the greatest impediments to better governance is the domestic patronage system, which, if allowed to continue, will result in the persistence of instability. The current leadership continues to stick to an autocratic mode of governance which will prove counterproductive in months to come.

As far as regional politics is concerned, the most critical are India-Pakistan relations, that really depend on how the government tackles the larger civil-military relations. Already, the army is calling the shots in terms of regional ties. The peace process fell victim to Musharraf8217;s follies at home that made him ineffective. Since March 9, 2007, he was unable to push the peace process further. The present government will not be able to make substantial moves as long as it is unable to convince the army of the benefits of improving bilateral relations.

Similarly, the GWAT agenda had changed in the past six to eight months due to the military8217;s perception of the threat. There are multiple actors in this war who influence events. The greatest test for the new civilian government as far as its relations with the US are concerned is its ability to rope in the ISI. The faux pas made recently has weakened the government8217;s ability to harness the intelligence agency.

The bottom-line is that Musharraf8217;s departure is welcome. But what happens next will determine whether the ordinary Pakistani and the world will end up with more anxiety or less. The political problems are structural and there are no easy solutions.

The writer is an Islamabad-based independent security analyst