Exit polls with disparate views

But another exit poll, this time by the pro-BJP Jain TV, forecasts that despite some minor losses in the last two phases of the five-phased polls, the NDA appears to be heading towards an absolute majority in the House.

Jain TV8217;s exit poll, the results of which were released today, acknowledges that the BJP has yielded ground in Uttar Pradesh, a fact which is reflected in the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party gaining six seats each, and the BJP getting four seatsless of the 24 constituencies that went to the polls yesterday.

In Madhya Pradesh too, the BJP will not fare too well, Jain TV said, with the NDA expected to lose four seats while the Congress and allies gain eight seats in the third round of polling in the State.

But these debits are more than compensated by the NDA8217;s performance in Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Orissa where the Jain exit poll predicts that the BJP and allies will be well ahead of the Congress and its political partners.

The overall picture portrayed by Jain TV8217;s poll is that after the fourth phase the NDA is likely to get 236 seats while the Congress would capture 127.

The Jain TV exit polls canvassed the opinions of 5,500 voters in 30 representative constituencies out of 74 seats in the nine states that went to the polls on Saturday.

The Lokmat-IMS-CMCR exit poll was conducted in 83 constituencies with a sample base of 19,875 voters spread over 11 states in the four phases of polling.

Giving the Congress and its allies theedge, the Lokmat poll suggests that while the NDA will be ahead of its rivals in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and UP in the elections held in the past four phases, the Congress will perform better in the next and last phase of the poll.

The Congress and its allies are expected to make major gains in Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, UP and Tamil Nadu.

The Lokmat survey, however, is at variance with the exit poll conducted by Development and Research Services DRS telecast on Doordarshan within hours of the conclusion of Saturday8217;s polling. DRS had assigned 235 seats to the NDA and 145 seats to the Congress and allies, with the Congress securing 42 of the 74 constituencies.

Sceptics, however point out that the two exit polls giving two sets of disparate results, lend credence to the growing feeling that the phenomenon of exit polls may be well off the mark and the Indian voter may yet surprise us all.