Don146;t limit delimitation

It is expected that a fresh delimitation exercise would at least relocate the electoral boundaries to have a more or less equal electorate in all the constituencies within the state. But even this effort could be undermined considering that the new delimitation would be carried out on the basis of the 1991 population figures and not on the basis of the 2001 census estimates.

This would mean that the new delimitation, when completed, would be already more than 10 years old. Further, it may not be able to achieve an equal population to seat ratio within the state. As per a rough classification of the Lok Sabha seats, 74 of them can be deemed as urban, 156 as rural, 70 as semi urban and 243 as semi rural. The electorate in urban constituencies grows at a faster rate, compared to rural constituencies. During the last two decades, the average electorate growth in an urban constituency had been at the rate of 51 and 34 per cent respectively, while the growth rate of the electorate in rural constituencies had been 38 and 29 per cent respectively.

Let8217;s now consider specific urban constituencies. Take Outer Delhi and East Delhi. They have virtually doubled in terms of the number of the electorate during the last two decades. During this period, the electorate in Outer Delhi had grown at the rate of 159 and 97 per cent respectively. In East Delhi, the electorate had grown at the rate of 118 and 62 per cent during the same period.

Delimitation based on the 1991 population would mean that while the electoral boundaries would be redrawn, adhering to the principle of equal population to seat ratio within the state, since urban constituencies would have already experienced a higher growth compared to rural constituencies, an anomaly 8212; which this exercise aims to rectify 8212; would creep in automatically. The constituencies even within the state would remain unequal in size. The Outer Delhi Lok Sabha constituency would be double the size of the average Lok Sabha constituency of Delhi since this constituency had witnessed a nearly 97 per cent growth rate in terms of the electorate during the last decade. A similar effect could be noticed in 74 urban Lok Sabha constituencies, which has 5 per cent higher growth as compared to the rural constituencies.

As per the 1991 census, the national growth rate of the population is 24 per cent as compared to the 31 per cent growth rate among SCs and 26 per cent among STs. When the seats for the SCs and STs would be reserved in proportion to their share in the population based on the 1991 census estimate, it would mean reserving a lesser number of seats for these categories compared to their share in the population.

Delimitation based on the 2001 census figures will delay the work somewhat, resulting in one more Lok Sabha election being based on the old delimitation order. But it may be worth the wait. If delimitation is carried out on the basis of 2001 census, the country would have an updated revision of its electoral boundaries with minimal discrepancies.

Since the next delimitation exercise will take place only 30 years later, is it not sensible to have a delimitation that reflects the electoral reality of the present and not that of a decade ago?

The writer is an associate fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies