Does this have to happen?

NEW-AGE wisdom from an enlightened ecologist? Back-to-nature punditry from a 21st-century babu? Impractical advice from a flood-control panel chairman?

None of the above, actually. Those are the words of B Chia, an 8 BC Chinese expert anointed to prepare a flood-control plan for the Yellow River. Their currency was reinforced emphatically last week, when two things happened simultaneously.

One, a small tributary of the Sutlej by the name of Pareechu was dammed in the Tibetan Himalayas following a landslide. If the debris wall of stones, boulders and silt gave way, millions of cusecs of water would gush through the Sutlej valley in Himachal Pradesh. A 2002 MoU between the governments of China and India allowed adequate warning; thousands were evacuated and the valley was put on high alert.

Two, in the foothills of the Himalayas, Bihar witnessed one of its worst floods in 15 years. Large swathes of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh went under water as the Brahmaputra and the Kosi 8212; rivers originating in Tibet and Bhutan 8212; overflowed their banks and changed their course. None of these phenomena possessed the drama and novelty of Pareechu, and the disasters made few headlines.

To be fair, the response mechanism of the Union government did kick into action. It produced yet another high-powered Flood Control Task Force, which will submit its report on a flood-control strategy by December. Its recommendations are not expected to be substantially different from previous commissions8217; see box, A river runs through policy, but it has also been tasked with sourcing funds for implementation of the strategy.

Never-ending story
BETWEEN the floods and the task force lies the story of floods in India, pretty much an annual feature now, killing thousands and destroying property worth crores see accompanying story, Bihar8217;s water slide.

Floods in India are partly a curse of geography: Of a total area of 329 million hectares MHA, 40 MHA was declared flood-prone in 1980. By the 10th plan period 2002, it had expanded to 45.64 MHA, of which, the government claims, 16 MHA is protected.

In all, some Rs 20,000 crore has been spent on flood control. But for all the difference it has made 8212; or the technological, scientific and engineering tools that have been deployed 8212; it seems the country has no imagination left to tackle the flood fatigue.

The Flood Control Task Force, therefore, has a lot riding on it. Its primary challenge: To rise beyond the build-embankment knee-jerk recommendation. In Bihar, some 3,400-km of embankments were built by the mid-8217;80s, but the flood-prone area increased from 2.5 MHA to 6.4 MHA.

If it discards the contractor-friendly solution of low-cost embankments that resulted, in the words of a North-East expert, 8216;8216;in a series of bathtubs along the Brahmaputra8217;8217;, the panel has several options to consider:

8226; It could force states to 8216;8216;flood-zone8217;8217;, keep the flood plains empty of people and allow the river to flow and ebb, leaving rich silt after every monsoon.
8226; It could recommend the construction of giant reservoirs with flood cushions storing water for the lean season.
8226; It could recognise that while the might of rivers is uncontrollable, monitoring stations and satellites could warn of cloud-bursts, flash floods, glacier-melts and landslide lakes well in advance, allowing evacuation and minimising damage.

In all likelihood, the panel will suggest a mix of the above, switching tack from 8216;8216;flood control8217;8217; to 8216;8216;flood management8217;8217;. But then, as R Rangachari 8212; former commissioner in the Ministry of Water Resources, veteran of several panels and a member of the latest task force 8212; says, 8216;8216;As with everything else in the country, it is the implementation that is the problem, not the strategy.8217;8217;

Plain tales
BUT implementation has never been as important as it is now. The jury may be still out on global warming and its impact on glaciers and rivers, but two years ago, the United Nations came out with a report that could double as a script for a Hollywood disaster movie.

After studying 4,000 glaciers and 5,000 glacial lakes in Nepal and Bhutan, the report warned that dozens of these water bodies could burst their seams over five years.

This wasn8217;t the first warning: Scientists at the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP headquarters in Nairobi have frequently predicted intense flooding in the Himalayas over the next half-decade or so, as melting snowfields and glacier-fed mountain lakes overflow.

Another report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and UNEP says that 24 of 2,674 glacial lakes in Bhutan are 8216;8216;potentially dangerous8217;8217;, meaning that they could burst any time.

It doesn8217;t take a rocket scientist to figure out national borders are meaningless in such a disaster scenario. Now, consider the number of potential rogue rivers flowing into India:

8226; The Brahmaputra, after originating in Tibet, flows through 1,700 km of foreign territory before entering India through a narrow, snowy gorge. The slope in Assam is much steeper than an aging river requires, so the heavy silt load and flood discharge extend over an area of 5,80,000 sq km.
8226; The Kosi and Gandak in Bihar, too, flow through Nepal before crossing over into India.
8226; The Sutlej is born in the Manasarovar and is fed by a number of tributaries in Tibet before flowing into India.
8226; Far less publicised than Pareechu, a small river by the name of Beki in Bhutan dammed and then burst this monsoon, creating havoc in the Barpeta district of Assam.
8226; In 2000, the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh rose by 100-120 feet, devastating four districts of the state, killing 26 and sweeping away at least three strategic bridges, totalling damages of Rs 140 crore. Initially attributed to a freak cloud-burst, the floods were later found to have been triggered by the release of excess water in the Tsang Po, as the Brahmaputra is known in China.
8226; Almost 50 years before that, an artificial lake, formed in the Siang after a massive earthquake, burst, causing the Brahmaputra to change its course and spark one of the North-East8217;s worst-ever floods.

Being neighbourly
ALL of which just goes to make a case for better cooperation on flood data between neighbouring countries. Though the pact with China helped the Centre access some information on Pareechu, the quantum leaves much to be desired.

At present, India can get news on the status of the Tsang Po at three locations: Nugesha, Uangkun and Nuksia. 8216;8216;We receive data from these stations via e-mail twice a day. This gives us enough time to react and take precautions,8217;8217; says A K Srivastava, executive engineer, Central Water Commission, Guwahati. It takes 20 hours for the water to flow from Nuksia to Pasighat in Arunachal Pradesh, and 16 hours for it to reach Dibrugarh.

The Assam government, however, doesn8217;t agree with Srivastava8217;s positiveness on the India-China pact. 8216;8216;The Assam government cannot write to the Chinese authorities. We thus keep pressing the Centre from time to time on the need to not just share information, but also take up joint projects, so that the Brahmaputra does not go out of control,8217;8217; says an Assam government official.

India has sourced data from Nepal since 1989, from Bangladesh since 1972 and from Bhutan from the 70s. With China, even the sketchy information available on the Pareechu would not have been accessible before 2002.

Apart from tapping neighbouring countries, the Centre has set up two gigantic river panels: the Ganga Flood Control Commission and the Brahmaputra Board. They were charged with drawing masterplans of the respective basins and preparing detailed reports on multi-purpose projects. The plans are in place, but there is little to show for it in the ground.

Undeterred, the Centre set up a Rashtriya Badh Aayog in 1976. The mother of all commissions submitted 207 recommendations 8212; including, for the first time, a scientific mapping of flood-prone areas with the help of detailed hydrological data. The suggestions were duly forwarded to the states for implementation but, two decades later, the Rangachari Committee found that none of the states had worked on any of the ideas.

To dam or not to dam
THE role of big projects in stemming floods is still controversial, though experts believe the situation downstream of the Narmada would have been much worse this monsoon if the under-construction Sardar Sarovar dam had not stored thousands of cusecs of water. The Maithon and Hirakud reservoirs, too, are said to have moderated floods.

In the North-East, the Brahmaputra Board believes the problem can only be solved by building large storage dams in the upper part of the basin. Two projects 8212; the Subansiri project and the Dihang dam 8212; were taken up, but both are stuck at the Supreme Court.

A third, the Pagladiyar dam project, has been approved by the Centre but work is yet to begin, thanks to local resistance. Located in the tribal-inhabited upper Assam region, it would bring relief to the lower Assam region.

Sapta Kosi, a joint project with Nepal, is similarly stuck because while the submergence will be in Nepal, the flood benefit will come to India. 8216;8216;In most cases, the flood relief happens in one area while the brunt of submergence is faced by people in the upper reaches,8217;8217; says R K Goyal, chairman, Brahmaputra Board.

There is no unanimity on the usefulness of embankments either. While state governments opine that they work well, there is evidence to suggest they increase flood intensity.

8216;8216;They were constructed as short-term measure and in a piecemeal manner, these are not systematically planned or designed,8217;8217; says the working paper on the 10th Plan. Since 1954, 33,000 km of embankments have been constructed and 37,000 km of drainage channels created.

Because they were designed as stop-gap measures, however, no long-term hydrological data went into their construction. The force of the Kosi and Gandak, in fact, are so strong that present design of embankments has been undermined. Experts feel these structures do not allow the silt to disperse when the river is in spate. The silt accumulates on the river bed, raising the bed, leading to floods. It also distorts the gradient of the outfall points.

However, the Centre still considers embankments the cheapest flood-control measure. 8216;8216;It is not the embankments per se that are bad, it is the maintenance,8217;8217; says Goyal.

Interlinking channels
NEW thought, though, is increasingly moving towards flood-plain zoning. This involves mapping the flood plain and then regulating land use strictly. It recognises the fact that the river will burst its banks and spill out on the flood plain. The flood plain is integral part of the river system. When it is not occupied by water, it forms part of land system allowing agriculture, urban development and other economic activities.

To regulate the land use in flood plain, a draft model Bill for Flood Plain Zoning was circulated in 1975. Except for Rajasthan and Manipur, no state has moved on it.

Then there is the ambitious river-linking project. While initially the Vajpayee government plan to transport water from surplus areas to deficient ones received a cold shoulder from the UPA, the project is now under review. Flood control is one of the benefits that is likely to come out of it.

Experts agree that as part of the non-structural measures, nationwide flood forecasting has to be established. India currently has 139 stations for river stage forecasts and 27 for inflow forecasts. The 10th Plan has sanctioned Rs 51 crore for their upgradation, especially real-time data collection methods that will liberate them from phones and e-mails.

Funding, though, is a major concern. 8216;8216;Less than one per cent of the GDP is sanctioned for flood-proofing. It is not enough,8217;8217; says Rangachari.

When a British irrigation expert William Willcock came to India in 1920s, he raved about a system followed in West Bengal: an intricate system of inundation canals to channelise the overflow from the river. With the population and pressures on land growing, this may be scoffed at now, but apply a dose of imagination to this, and there could be a solution.

with Samudra Gupta Kashyap in Guwahati

Bihar8217;s water slides
Embankments on Bihar8217;s rivers have seen little maintenance. That explains the frequent floods

NIRMALA GANAPATHY

MUZAFFARPUR: EVERY year as the water in the Bhagmati river rises, it takes away a bit of the embankment built along it. This year, say experts, Bihar recorded the highest flood level since 1987. About 10,000 cubic water flowed through the Bhagmati river alone. Originating in the Shivpuri range, 20 km ahead of Kathmandu, the Bhagmati enters Bihar through Dheng. And each time its level rises and a bit of the embankment slips, Bihar8217;s Sitamarhi district is flooded.

The cause of these slipping embankments is not difficult to see. The last time any maintenance was done here was in 1994. 8216;8216;There has been negligible maintenance on the embankments,8217;8217; agrees an official.

District Magistrate Surya Kumar Mishra justifies the oversight. 8216;8216;The regular maintenance of embankments has not taken place due to financial constraints and small breaches have become bigger. I think regular maintenance is one way out.8217;8217;

Most of these embankments were made in 1950s, or even earlier, and are in urgent need of repair. Apart from the Bhagmati, other ice-fed Himalayan rivers like the Ghagra, Gandak, Bhure Gandak, Bhagmati, Kamla, Kosi and Mahanendu flow through Bihar.

Population pressure has compounded the problem. Experts say the number of people mining sand from the embankments has increased sharply. 8216;8216;The growth of population is another reason. Sand is being carried out indiscriminately by people living in the area and by contractors,8217;8217; says Dr Achintya, associate professor in the department of civil engineering at the Muzaffarpur Institute of Technology MIT.

According to MIT figures, the population density of India is 274 per sq km, while in North Bihar, it is 735/sq km.

And now rodents too are joining humans in destructive digging. 8216;8216;Since maintenance is not being done, rats also become a factor. They make holes and weaken the structure,8217;8217; says Achintya. A flood control report supports the theory.

But there are ways to hold these embankments up. According to Achintya, maintenance combined with brick lining along the embankments will prevent erosion.

But there is no single solution. 8216;8216;Flood control is such a problem that there is no one and permanent solution. First of all, the river channel should be dredged. An embankment is a working solution 8212; if built properly, it will reduce the force of the water. But the problem should also be addressed in Nepal. That8217;s the suitable site for a dam, not Bihar,8217;8217; says Dr Arun Prakash, professor and head of MIT8217;s civil engineering department.

8216;8216;An embankment is only a temporary solution. But I think the permanent solution lies elsewhere an understanding should be reached with Nepal. The water has to be controlled at the source. And that is what the state government is trying to do,8217;8217; says Mishra, adding, 8216;8216;the solution also lies with the desilting of the river bed. Otherwise, the next time the floods come, they will again break old records.8217;8217;

The way the world does it
INDIA may seem to have got a raw deal so far as natural calamities are concerned, but countries far wealthier and less densely populated don8217;t seem to have too good a time of preventing floods either. Control measures, though, are well in place. A checklist:

UNITED STATES
Of all natural disasters, floods 8212; caused by hurricanes, snowmelts, dam-collapses and rainfall 8212; caused the most damage in terms of lives and property in the US in the 20th century. To limit the damage, a number of measures are institutionalised:

8226; Construction capacity in the floodway is strictly regulated.
8226; Property that cannot be adequately covered by flood control measures is acquired by the government for public use.
8226; Financial and technical assistance for flood-proofing is provided by the government. Free publications are available on the subject.
8226; The most severely damaged areas get priority consideration and assistance from state and federal sources; flood insurance programmes are in place.

EUROPE
Following the worst floods of a century in the summer of 2002, Central European countries came to a consensus on certain vital issues:

8226; Flood plains have to be preserved, though 85 per cent has been diminished because of land utilisation.
8226; The Mulde Concept, named after one of the worst-affected rivers, suggests making effective use of the natural flood drainage functions of the rivers, allowing farmlands to get flooded but protecting densely populated areas.
8226; Mobile levees will take care of ancient city areas and other important sites.

CHINA
With the Huang-Ho and the Yangtse-Kiang rivalling the Ganga and the Brahmaputra in terms of flooding potency, and population outstripping India8217;s, China has seen an increasing frequency of devastating floods. The response, though, has been swift:

8226; Plans are in place to restore reclaimed land around lakes and rivers to wetland areas. Efforts are on to control logging in the upper and middle reaches of the river, thus protecting the watershed.
8226; Flood control statistics are standardised; a flood control and drought relief body deals with all related issues.
8226; Dam and reservoir construction is a priority; so is training officials in flood control measures.
8226; Accountability is a given: local administrative heads are in charge in every sense of the term if natural disaster strikes.

Tanvi Saraf