Desperate gamble

A woman candidate is, in fact, the BJP8217;s only way out of the Delhi mess. All the issues that have riled the Delhiwallahs recently, be it the skyrocketing onion prices, or the water and power crisis this summer or the deteriorating law and order situation in thecapital, affect women the most. Added to this has been Sonia Gandhi8217;s potential appeal among women voters and her emphasis on gender justice. A large number of women attended her meetings before the general elections earlier this year.

Sushma with her clean and sober image, no-nonsense manner, telegenic personality, articulation and aggressive campaign she has already begun inspecting police stations at night and her youthfulness compared to Shiela Dixit, would have been a clear winner in any other circumstance.

But everything is not hunky dory. And the BJP8217;s moral in the captial has been at an all-time low in recent months. The party hopes to make it a Sushma versus Shiela battle. The idea is to take the election away from the Sahib Singh Verma-Madan Lal Khurana shenanigans and bijli-paani-pyaz syndrome. Sushma8217;s victory from South Delhi twice makes the Haryanvi leader much more of a Delhiwallah than Shiela Dixit who is a newcomer to Delhi, having contested elections in UP.

The strategy is clear. Butwill it work?

First, Sushma has to contend with the fact that the coming electoral battle in Delhi will be influenced as much by the acts of omission and commission of the just ousted Chief Minister as those of Atal Behari Vajpayee.

Then there is the incumbency factor. Several of the recent surveys point to a near rout for the BJP in Delhi. Many argue that Sushma might have made a difference had she been roped in earlier. Her name has been bandied about for sometime now. She resisted the move for obvious reasons. Her reluctance and unhappiness was patent even as she was making her acceptance speech to the media. She agreed on the condition that the Prime Minister keep the portfolios she had held vacant till after the elections.

The fact of the matter is that this was the only time the party could have brought in Sushma. A stint in office longer than 45 days would have made her accountable for the government8217;s actions. Then there is the onion issue.

Having gone in for its import which is expected tobring down the prices, the BJP hopes to reap the benefit from the fall in prices and the only way it could do this is with a new incumbent in the saddle. The price of other vegetables is also likely to fall as winter sets in, and this happens in the normal course. Sushma8217;s advantage is that she belongs to neither of the two warring camps in the party, and finally became acceptable to both Sahib Singh and Khurana for that reason. But there is also the danger that the BJP may fall between two stools and lose more than it gains with the Sushma card.It has antagonised the Jats and this is clear from their reaction in Delhi.

The criticism by Jat leaders of different parties, including Om Prakash Chautala and Ajit Singh, is reflective of the sentiment of the community in Jatland in and around the capital. The Jats have often voted for their gotra8217; or khap'subgroup but they are also known to close ranks when it becomes a matter of their izzat honour. The Jats are upset over the way the BJP sent theirleader packing in a DTC bus! This will have its fallout in neighbouring Rajasthan, and further consolidate the community behind the Congress.

The Congress Party is also playing up the Punjabi angle in Delhi. It has launched a clever campaign amongst the Punjabis in Delhi that their leader, Madan Lal Khurana, was denied the top seat. It is underscoring Shiela Dixit8217;s Punjabi background. She is from a Punjabi family and was married into the family of Uma Shankar Dixit in UP. Shiela Dixit has at some of her meetings recently told audiences that one of her grandmothers and an aunt were Sikhs.

Though nobody in the faction-ridden DPCC dare oppose her given her proximity to Sonia Gandhi, she has mended fences with Sajjan Kumar, the Congress8217; Jat leader from Outer Delhi.

The importance of the Jat factor goes beyond the chief ministership of Delhi. The non-Yadav intermediate castes in north and west India have formed the mainstay of the support of the BJP and some of its allies. The Kurmis and Lodhs and Jats ofUP, the Kurmis and Koirees of Bihar, the Patels/ Patidars of Gujarat, the Kunbis of Maharashtra and the Jat Sikhs of Punjab have formed the basis of the social coalition which brought the ruling alliance to power. The BJP can ill afford to annoy the Jats and that is why it has talked about a Cabinet expansion at the weekend in order to placate Sahib Singh Verma.

The outcome of the Delhi polls will have a psychological impact on the rest of India which goes beyond the seven seats the capital represents in the Lok Sabha. That8217;s why the BJP has gone for a desperate last-minute gamble in the capital.