Demographic crisis, robotic cure

But engineers say it8217;s the 8220;service robots,8221; which can8217;t dance a lick and don8217;t look remotely human, that can bail out Japan, which has the world8217;s largest proportion of residents over 65 and smallest proportion of children under 15. One such gizmo can spoon-feed the elderly. Others are being designed to hoist them onto a toilet and phone a nurse when they won8217;t take their pills.

Toyota, the world8217;s largest car company, announced last month that service robots would soon become one of its core businesses. The government heavily subsidises development of these machines. Other cheerleaders for robots include universities and much of the news media.

Not everyone, though, is cheering. There are critics who describe the robot cure for an ageing society as little more than hi-tech quackery. They say that robots are a politically expedient palliative that allows politicians and corporate leaders to avoid wrenchingly difficult social issues, such as Japan8217;s deep-seated aversion to immigration, its chronic shortage of affordable day care and Japanese women8217;s increasing rejection of motherhood.

8220;Robots can be useful, but they cannot come close to overcoming the problem of population decline,8221; said Hidenori Sakanaka, former head of the Tokyo Immigration Bureau and now director of the Japan Immigration Policy Institute, a research group in Tokyo.

8220;The government would do much better spending its money to recruit, educate and nurture immigrants,8221; he said.

The scale of the coming demographic disaster, assuming present trends continue, is without precedent, according to Sakanaka and many other analysts. Population shrinkage began here three years ago and is gathering pace. Within 50 years, the population, now 127 million, will fall by a third, the government projects. Within a century, two-thirds of the population will be gone. That would leave Japan, now the world8217;s second-largest economy, with about 42 million people.

The workforce would shrink even faster, thanks to the dearth of children under 15, whose numbers have been falling for 26 consecutive years and now reflect a record-low 13.6 percent of the population.

Within 20 years, the workforce will fall by 10 percent, according to Goldman Sachs, the investment firm. It estimates that within 30 years, Japan will have just two workers for each retiree; within 50 years, two retirees for every three workers. Pension and health care systems will be at risk of collapse.

Robots can make these more affordable and less disruptive, said Masakatsu G. Fujie, a professor of mechanical engineering at Tokyo8217;s Waseda University.

In a recent lecture to foreign journalists, he said service robots could help reduce government spending on health care, take over many dreary service jobs and prop up Japan8217;s 8220;societal vitality.8221;

The government prefers spending money on robot development rather than on immigrants, Sakanaka said, because robots do not have a political downside. 8220;Politicians avoid the immigration issue because it doesn8217;t lead to a vote,8221; he said. 8220;They should be thinking about Japan8217;s future, but they are not.8221;
-Blaine Harden The Washington Post