Cuba146;s post-Revolution generation set for power

With President Fidel Castro ill, and acting President Raul Castro 75 years old, the era of those who won the 1959 revolution is ending...

With President Fidel Castro ill, and acting President Raul Castro 75 years old, the era of those who won the 1959 revolution is ending and the ascendancy of a new generation is about to begin, Cuba experts say.

A video of Fidel Castro, 80, in a hospital bed after surgery for intestinal bleeding quashed rumours he may have died and his brother8217;s public appearance at the weekend may have settled the question who is in control for now.

Future leaders include long-time Castro confidant and parliament head Ricardo Alarcon, 69, Vice-President Carlos Lage, 54, and pugnacious Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, 41, a staunch ideologue groomed for years by Fidel Castro.

8220;The Castro brothers have never anointed, or permitted, the emergence of a 8216;third man,8217;8221; said Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst and author of a recent book on the Castros. 8220;It has been one of the secrets of their success at holding on to power virtually unopposed on the island all these years,8221; he added.

The US government, which is pushing for a transition to multi-party democracy in Cuba, said Fidel Castro8217;s health crisis and succession by his brother have yet to be resolved. 8220;What we are seeing in Cuba today is a slow-motion transfer of power,8221; senior State Department official for Latin America, Thomas Shannon, told Argentine journalists. 8220;But this is going to be a difficult process.8221;

In secretive Cuba, influence is exercised by the generals, the 25 members of the 8220;Politburo8221; who would choose a temporary Communist Party leader if Raul Castro were to become incapacitated, and the 30-member Council of State, which would select a temporary president under the same circumstances.

Cuba in July also established a new Communist Party executive committee. Most of its members are young up and coming stars in their 40s and 50s. Alarcon, Lage and Perez Roque are not on it.

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In addition, the younger generations are filling mid-level positions throughout the state apparatus, and it is not clear if a new 8220;strongman8221; will emerge, a more collective leadership or even a power struggle. 8220;New generations are already in control of much of the existing power structure,8221; Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence officer who defected in the 1990s, wrote in a paper on the leadership question. Some Cubans fear that without the Castros around to keep their proteges in line, power struggles may erupt.

8211;Marc Frank