Congress needs inner coalitions

No one knows what Jogi will do if asked to step down. By letting it be known that he had an hour long 8220;emotional8221; meeting with ailing BSP leader Kanshi Ram, who urged him to complete his unfinished dalit agenda, Jogi sent out a 8220;don8217;t mess around with me8221; signal to the party leadership. In the last many months he had become larger than the party and, in Chhattisgarh, it8217;s clearly Jogi versus The Rest.

Dilemma Number Two is how to handle K. Karunankaran8217;s open defiance, so that it does not spread to other states. The Congress leadership cannot afford to cut its nose to spite its face in the run up to state and national polls. And yet Karunakaran has cocked a snook at the High Command by openly supporting the LDF-backed candidate who defeated the official Congress nominee. The old fox has now given the party time till November 19 8212; just 10 days before the five assembly elections 8212; to remove Antony or face the music.

The Congress has thus far avoided precipitating action against him, fearing a split that could bring down the government, now that the CPM has indicated its willingness to support Karunakaran if he breaks away. Antony has bought some time by working out a rehabilitation package for Marad victims and has, to an extent, pacified the Muslim League, which was threatening to pull out.

Ernakulam has focussed on a recurring theme 8212; the stand the party should take on the Hindu-Muslim conundrum so that it does not fall between two stools. Muslim disenchantment with the Congress was a key factor which led to its defeat both in Ernakulam and Solapur. Antony8217;s actions have enamoured him to the Hindus and he is, possibly, forging a new social coalition. Muslims complain that he went several times to the birthday celebrations of Mata Amritananadamayee, did not send Togadia packing, did not visit the Marad victims, and has stated quite openly that the security of the minority community lies in the goodwill of the majority. While no party can afford to antagonise the majority community, a Vaghela is no answer to a Modi. The Congress has to become clearer on what it stands for, which are the sections it wants on its side and how it is going to go about achieving this.

The third dilemma is the kind of electoral alliance it will have with Sharad Pawar. With his links inside the Congress, Pawar is a parallel pole for dissatisfied Congressmen. It was a V.C. Shukla joining the NCP yesterday, it may be a Karunakaran tomorrow. Yet Maharashtra with its 48 Lok Sabha seats is critical for the party if it has any chance to come to power. The Congress cannot do without Pawar. Yet it knows that he has weakened the party and will continue to do so in the future. The NCP may not have fielded a candidate against the Congress nominee in Solapur but its rank and file worked for the BJP-Shiv Sena candidate.

The more dangerous aspects of a Karunakaran or Jogi are the signals they send to others: there8217;s a J.B.Patnaik in Orissa, a Virbhadra Singh in Himachal, an N.D. Tewari in Uttaranchal, all interested in doing things their own way. While many senior leaders want Sonia Gandhi to keep the party together, it is hardly a secret that they do not want her to succeed for that would mean the end of the road for them. Yet Sonia Gandhi has to take them along as the party8217;s eyes, ears and brainpower, if not its limbs.

In the last years, Sonia Gandhi has given her chief ministers a free hand, so that they could deliver, unhindered. This is also good politics. The party cannot be strengthened by weakening its chief ministers. An empowered Congress also strengthens the high command, while electoral losses erode its authority. This is all the more true in an era of coalitions, when a one person high command has become a thing of the past.

Those who whisper in Sonia8217;s ears that Sheila Dikshit is growing too big for her boots and should have her wings clipped by packing the Pradesh Election Committee with people opposed to her, are doing the party, and its leader, a disservice. This, of course, does not mean putting all eggs in one basket. What is needed is to maintain a fine balance between giving a long rope to CMs, and accommodating factions to ensure powersharing. What the Congress needs now is an inner coalition so that there is timely mediation at various levels and the crises posed by a Karunakaran or a Jogi do not blow up in the party8217;s face.