Cong-BJP assembly face-off holds the key to Delhi coup

NEW DELHI, June 10: The abrupt backtracking by the Congress on its adjournment motion against the coalition in Parliament yesterday has reve...

NEW DELHI, June 10: The abrupt backtracking by the Congress on its adjournment motion against the coalition in Parliament yesterday has revealed that the party is not yet in a position to claim power at the Centre.

Instead, the move has shifted the focus to this November8217;s Assembly elections due in three states 8211; Rajasthan, MP and Delhi, which could potentially seal the fate of the Vajpayee Government.

The significance of the polls lies in the fact that the Congress and the BJP are posed in a straight fight in all three states. In Rajasthan and Delhi, regional parties have only a marginal influence. In MP, the BSP power centre is limited to the Gwalior region around the Uttar Pradesh border.

The Congress feels it has a fair opportunity of recapturing Rajasthan from the BJP after its unexpected victories in the state in the recent Lok Sabha polls. In Delhi, it is hoping to reduce the BJP8217;s majority. It is owing to these considerations that contributed to Congress plan to hold fire till the Assemblyelections throws up the clear popular mood. The outcome of these polls could boost chances for challenge posed by the Congress to the BJP-led government at the Centre.

Meanwhile, the Congress retreat has bucked up the Government which now hopes to get through the budget session without any mishap. For now, the Congress does not intend to press for a division during the vote on finance bills. It will move cut motions but is unlikely to demand a vote on them. The strategy will be to challenge the Government on issues rather than force it out of office.

Congress sources admitted that the party was not yet ready to pull down the Central government. The leadership feels it is too early to destabilise the Centre. Besides, it would rather that the Vajpayee Government collapsed on its own than with help from the Congress.

Congress sources revealed that Subramanian Swamy and former Congress MP from Tamil Nadu, R Prabhu, a 10 Janpath loyalist, have been in touch with the leadership on Jayalalitha8217;s behalf. But,Sonia continues to play it carefully.

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At the same time, the BJP has obviously realised that its continuance in office depends largely on Sonia8217;s goodwill. It is interesting that in the three months the party has been in government, none of its leaders have mentioned the Bofors issue even once. Yet, during the Lok Sabha election campaign, both Vajpayee and Advani had declared that the Bofors probe would be carried to its logical conclusion.

Vajpayee8217;s two closed door meetings with Sonia are part of the attempt to keep her in good humour. And so far, the strategy seems to be paying off.