Opinion Venezuela after Maduro: What Washington really wants
Venezuelans would hope that Washington’s meddling does not lead to yet more uncertainty and societal chaos
As many world leaders and even US senators have noted, the US operation on Venezuelan oil is certainly a violation of international law In all the noise emanating from Washington regarding its military operation to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, it’s important to separate fact from fiction.
First, there is no regime change in Venezuela. At least, not yet. The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) remains in charge. The party’s high command continues to parrot their usual rhetoric and has called the US operation a “terrorist” attack to “kidnap” Maduro, in complete breach of international law. The four main ringleaders retain their positions: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez (recently sworn in as interim president), her brother Jorge Rodríguez, who presides over the National Assembly, four-star general Vladimir Padrino López, who leads the defence ministry, and Diosdado Cabello, the interior minister. While Padrino López and Cabello are hardline Chavistas, followers and supporters of the socialist ideology espoused by late Venezuelan socialist Hugo Chávez, the Rodriguez siblings may be considered more moderate Chavistas. If Washington really wanted to enact regime change, they would not have left such important figures of the regime untouched, safe and sound in Venezuela. It seems increasingly plausible that Washington accepted a modified version of a proposal presented by Qatari mediators, which included Delcy Rodríguez serving as leader of a transitional government. The Qatari intermediaries presented this as “Madurismo without Maduro,” which could “enable a peaceful transition in Venezuela — preserving political stability without dismantling the ruling apparatus.”
So, if regime change was not Washington’s objective, what is?
That brings us to the second point: Oil. It is now popular knowledge that Venezuela is home to the world’s largest reserves of oil, with 303 billion barrels of oil, eclipsing even Saudi Arabia. For years, the large majority of Venezuela’s crude oil exports were destined for refineries in the United States. Throughout Chávez’s time in power, more than 50 per cent of Venezuela’s oil exports went to the US, and even during Maduro’s reign from 2013 to 2025, between 35-50 per cent of Venezuela’s oil was shipped to US shores — at this time, countries like China and India also began importing large quantities of Venezuelan oil. As Trump recently noted in a press conference, Washington is certainly interested in Venezuela’s oil, claiming that US oil companies will spend billions of dollars to “fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country.”
This is a tall claim and is unlikely to materialise during Trump’s time in office. While Chevron already accounts for a quarter of Venezuela’s total oil production, it may take years for US oil majors like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips to return to Venezuela and restart production at scale, and it would cost them billions to do so in a country with an uncertain political future. Venezuela may need to invest as much as $100 billion to ramp up production from the current level of around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2 million bpd.
Third, the entire exercise conducted by Washington, in conjunction with the Pentagon and Langley, home of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), became a major show of force of the US’s military and covert capabilities, and their readiness to conduct military operations on foreign soil. The photos posted by Trump on social media, sitting beside the CIA chief, flanked by the US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and several military leaders, all executing an operation on foreign soil while sitting in the US, are meant to send a message not only to Caracas, but to the world at large. That message was echoed by Hegseth in a recent press conference: “Welcome to 2026, and under President Trump, America is back.” As many world leaders and even US senators have noted, the US operation on Venezuelan oil is certainly a violation of international law. This sets a dangerous example, one that other autocratic leaders from China and Russia may use to justify similar future actions in what they consider to be their neighbourhood.
The situation in far-off Venezuela may seem irrelevant to most Indian observers, but New Delhi will keep a close track of developments. As expected, India’s public statement on the situation is prudent, only noting that this is a “matter of deep concern,” focusing on the “well-being and safety of the people of Venezuela.” India has never been a close political ally of the Chavista government in Venezuela, but it is nonetheless an economic partner to the country’s oil industry. If US oil firms reinsert themselves in Venezuela’s oil industry, it may not leave much space for Indian oil importers like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, nor for investors like ONGC Videsh, Indian Oil and Oil India, which already have a stake in multiple oilfields in Venezuela.
The road ahead for Venezuela remains unclear, but one thing is certain: The Venezuelan people will continue to battle poverty, violence, hyperinflation and are far from receiving even the basic necessities of healthcare, education, security and infrastructure. Chavismo has wrecked Venezuelan society for more than a decade, led by corrupt officials, the absence of a rule of law, co-opted institutions and constant political repression. Even the Venezuelan opposition remains divided and is unable to take advantage of the current situation. Venezuelans would hope that Washington’s meddling does not lead to yet more uncertainty and societal chaos. Democracy seems like a tall order now, but the best-case scenario remains a call for new elections and a transition to a leader who could even get a semblance of legitimacy.
The writer is cofounder of Consilium Group and visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF)
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