Come on, General

When General Pervez Musharraf expressed his desire to attend the cricket match in India and use that opportunity to interact with Manmohan S...

When General Pervez Musharraf expressed his desire to attend the cricket match in India and use that opportunity to interact with Manmohan Singh, he ought to have made his calculations on a set of assumptions which appear to have since been belied by reality. He could not have expected the US to come out with its new strategy for South Asia with its commitment to help India as a major world power in the 21st century. Implied in that declaration is a commitment not to allow India8217;s secular, multicultural and democratic credentials to suffer. Nor could he have expected China to recognise, for the first time, India8217;s global role and its potential as a knowledge power of the future. US and China are the two powers on whose support Pakistan had been calculating for its hardline stand on Kashmir. The stands of these two powers could not have been lost on the separatist Kashmiri groups either.

Even as the US administration has promised a limited number of F-16 aircraft to Islamabad it will also be holding him hostage for good conduct until the delivery is over. Therefore for the next couple of years General Musharraf is in no position to threaten to take any military action over Kashmir. The General could not have lost sight of US announcing its intention to bid for 126 advanced fighter bombers India is to procure with offers of co-production in India. Foreign Minister Natwar Singh would be back in time to participate in discussions with General Musharraf after his meetings with President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Just now the US has succeeded in getting Dr Jalal Talabani, the separatist Kurdish leader, as the president of multi-ethnic multi-cultural and multi-lingual Iraq. The Kurdish demand for a separatist nation goes back to the twenties of the last century and is much older than the Kashmiri separatist demand. The US is totally opposed to Kurdish separation, although it has been backed overwhelmingly in the recent elections. The US prescription is autonomy and federalism. This is what India has been offering as the solution to the Kashmir issue. As US hopes to democratise more Islamic states, autonomy and federalism would be the standard formula to avoid unnecessary fragmentation of states and to promote a moderate Islam.

The US surveillance of terrorist activity in Pakistan has increased, partly to ensure augmented security for General Musharraf himself. Of late there is increasing threat to the General from the same terrorist groups which have also been active in Kashmir. Therefore General Musharraf8217;s options in respect of the use of terrorism in Kashmir are getting severely restricted. Meanwhile, India has strengthened its own surveillance within Kashmir and across the LoC. All these factors reduce Musharraf8217;s Kashmir options to proposals which, as Manmohan Singh has made clear, should avoid territorial readjustments and the redrawing of the LoC.

In respect of the Kashmir issue, India is a status quo nation and Pakistan a revisionary one. It is for the revisionary state to come up with proposals which would be acceptable to the other side, and it is futile to expect that the status quo-oriented state to come up with proposals which will affect it adversely. Therefore, it is for General Musharraf to come up with proposals within the overall framework indicated by the Indian prime minister. Such proposals have been the basis of settlement in Northern Ireland, for instance. Unfortunately, Musharraf appears to believe that any indication on his part to accept and work within Manmohan Singh8217;s boundary conditions would be deemed a climbdown by Pakistan8217;s hardliners.

All this should be very clear to Musharraf. There is also increasing pressure on him from the US to come clean on the A.Q. Khan affair. There are efforts on in the US Congress to block the F-16 aircraft sale on the ground that Musharraf has not told the US all that he knows about A.Q. Khan8217;s blackmarket and the Pakistani government involvement in it.

In spite of such a poor hand, the general hopes to get concessions from India. His strategy of 8216;after me the deluge8217; 8212; if he is not supported he would be replaced by a bearded general 8212; may work to a limited extent with the US but not likely to succeed vis-a-vis India. He can still save face and get concessions from India as Islamabad did in respect of the Srinagar-Islamabad bus trip since Manmohan Singh is keen to enable the general to continue the composite dialogue.

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There can be directions to the two special negotiators to come up with a series of proposals on the Northern Ireland model and to facilitate the inter-LoC communications to enable people on both sides of the border to interact with each other and thus generate consensus on the future possibilities of settlement. The Chinese have emphasised the primacy of economic relations. The possibility of intensified economic relations leading to political solutions in Kashmir could be examined by the special representatives. It is possible that the general may have some new ideas, not so far thought of. The Indian PM has already promised that the Indian side would be prepared to discuss all ideas put forward by Pakistan.

One way the Pakistani ruler can save face is to formulate a strategy which will be keep the discussions between the special representatives going, even as a sense of movement in Kashmir is sustained. For this, Pakistan must come forward with more proposals to increase the communications, joint projects and trade between the two sides of the LoC.

The general is no stranger to the power of propaganda. Faced with the ultimatum from the US, he could make successful attempts to convert significantly the pro-Taliban popular opinion in Pakistan to one of lukewarm support to the US. He made assurances on shedding his uniform to get the support of some of the political parties and subsequently went back on it. Pakistan was established on the basis of Jinnah8217;s non-theocratic principles and they were given up. Pakistan was able to reconcile itself to its breakup mainly to enable Z.A. Bhutto to become the leader of West Pakistan.

The generals of Pakistan, in spite of their tendency for rash actions, are realists enough when faced with harsh realities. Those realities are facing them very starkly today and in all probability their moves will be rational.