China146;s syndrome

Whether the tirade against the Indo-US nuclear deal in the Chinese Communist Party8217;s mouthpiece, People8217;s Daily, represents the official view of the government or not, Beijing is treading close to a dangerous political rupture with New Delhi. Although Chinese academics have voiced reservations in the past about India8217;s civil nuclear initiative, the latest salvo has been full frontal. That the attack came a few days before the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group meets in Vienna to consider a revision of the rules of global nuclear commerce in India8217;s favour, should deepen the wariness in New Delhi. If the arguments in the Daily are a precursor to a formal Chinese opposition at the NSG, Beijing should be in doubt about the political consequences.

Over the last three years, a large section of the Indian public opinion had convinced itself that China is behind the CPM8217;s visceral opposition to India8217;s long overdue nuclear liberation. While there was no direct proof, the circumstantial evidence was strong enough. And China is the only nuclear weapon power that has refused to publicly endorse the nuclear deal. New Delhi8217;s Sinophobes have long argued that China will never let India into the nuclear club.

Avoiding a negative approach, the UPA government had, rightly, sought Beijing8217;s diplomatic support at the NSG at various high-level political encounters since 2005. Based on Beijing8217;s positive assurances, New Delhi assessed that Beijing would not stand in the way of India regaining access to the global civilian nuclear market. India8217;s past expectations of China were belied, most notably in the campaign for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Beijing should be fully aware of India8217;s high stakes in the NSG waiver. India will judge any overt or covert opposition from Beijing in the NSG as a hostile act; and that in turn could end two decades of improvement in bilateral relations. India might have chosen to forget China8217;s active role in making Pakistan a nuclear weapon power. But it will never forgive a Chinese betrayal at the NSG. It is in Beijing8217;s interest, then, to immediately state in public the promises of support it has conveyed in private to the Indian leaders.