Chasing elusive export target

Such a target would have represented a highly ambitious export growth rate of about 18 per cent for the year. Last year saw a miserable export performance of $33 billion against a target of $38 billion, and an 18 per cent growth this year would have to imply a smart export recovery.

Now, Commerce Minister Bolla Bulli Ramaiah has told an economic daily that the new target is for export growth of between 10-15 per cent for 1997-98. This means an export value of some $36-37 billion, well below the target even of last year $38 bn.

Considering that these figures have followed each other in quick succession in the space of a few weeks, there is no saying how far the slide in the target may yet go as the year progresses. Ramaiah attributed the latest downward revision to the negative export growth (a 0.95 per cent decline) in the first quarter (April-June) of this year.

Exports recovered in the successive months of May and June after declining sharply in April, yielding an overall negative growth of 0.95 per cent for the first quarter. But whether the May and June growth is just a blip or the beginning of a sustained recovery will not be apparent until the figures for the next quarter are available. Until then the current target-fixing is akin to shooting in the dark.