CHANDRIKA STRIKES BACK

He asked Sri Lankans to remain calm, saying 8216;8216;I pledge to you the people, your government will not allow this desperate and irresponsible attempt to undermine the peace process and economic prosperity of the people to succeed.8217;8217; But the pro-Tiger Tamilnet website said the President8217;s actions had 8216;8216;dimmed8217;8217; prospects for peace, adding that the status of the ceasefire had become uncertain.

One of Kumaratunga8217;s first orders was to block the A-9 highway that connects Colombo with Jaffna, the major city in the island8217;s north controlled by the Tigers.

Her sacking of Defence minister Tilak Marapana she left the Transport portfolio with him, Interior minister John Amaratunga he8217;s left with the Christian Affairs department and Information minister Imthiaz Bakeer Markar and all bureaucrats involved in day-to-day affairs of these ministries, were clearly aimed at concentrating key organs of state power in her hands.

Kumaratunga is elected separately from the Prime Minister and Parliament, and has vast powers under the constitution. Announcing the dismissal of the ministers, the President8217;s office said: 8216;8216;This step has been taken after careful consideration, in order to prevent further deterioration of the security situation in the country.8217;8217;

New Delhi, 8216;8216;in continuous and close contact8217;8217; with both Kumaratunga and Wickremasinghe, had been reading the signals but was careful with its reaction.

The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson said: 8216;8216;We are surprised at the sudden political development in Sri Lanka today. We hope the situation doesn8217;t provoke a constitutional crisis which would impact on political stability in Sri Lanka and on the ongoing peace process. We also hope that a way can be urgently found through political dialogue to avoid these adverse consequences.8217;8217;

It is more than likely, however, that Kumaratunga8217;s visit to New Delhi from November 7-13 will now be called off as will the November 14-17 trip of G L Peiris, leader of the Sri Lankan team negotiating for peace with the LTTE.

Analysts said New Delhi8217;s 8216;8216;bottomline interest8217;8217; would be to see whether Kumaratunga would implement the variety of initiatives so ambitiously promised during Wickremasinghe8217;s visit a fortnight ago.

The joint statement signed during the visit contains landmark measures such as a Defence cooperation agreement, which includes ongoing cooperation in military training and supply of equipment, an open sky civil aviation policy with Sri Lanka as well as joint action on terrorism.

Under the circumstances, India was also not likely to agree with extreme views being voiced by a number of Western nations that the Norwegian-sponsored peace talks had been sabotaged by the latest move. Opinion was divided whether an early result of the current crisis was a snap poll.

A statement from Kumaratunga8217;s party, the Sri Lankan Freedom Party SLFP, today said the President had declared a state of emergency because she was concerned about the proposals put forth by the LTTE over the weekend which would have weakened the federal character of the nation.

India, a silent but major supporter of the peace process, had made it clear to Colombo it would be fully committed to the peace process as long as the goal was a fully sovereign Sri Lanka, its territorial integrity and federal character intact.

The litmus test for Kumaratunga over the next few weeks will be her ability to balance the Tigers8217; demands for significant autonomy with the expectation of the Sri Lankan people to continue keeping the peace that Wickremasinghe managed for the last couple of years.

After 18 years of civil strife, in which over 60,000 people had been killed, an exhausted Sri Lanka had only begun to taste the fruits of peace under Wickremasinghe.

Investments were up fourfold with India becoming the top investor in the island after the bilateral Free Trade treaty. Also up was tourism revenue with India replacing Britain, Germany and other nations as the top arrival source. A special economic partnership between New Delhi and Colombo too is on the anvil.

Still, Sri Lanka8217;s 8216;8216;mini-coup8217;8217; this afternoon was swift, decisive and sudden. Kumaratunga, commander-in-chief of the nation8217;s army, navy and air force, has siezed the controls. Under the circumstances, the budget that was supposed to have been brought to vote on November 12 will now be delayed. But analysts said there8217;s no guarantee that Kumaratunga would reconvene Parliament on November 19, pointing out she has the right to keep it suspended for three months. Scott McDonald is with Reuters in Colombo