Central Asian Games

Amidst the current geopolitical flux in different parts of Asia, all the major powers have begun to emphasise the importance of military diplomacy in shoring up their power positions on the continent. There is no point, as our Left parties do, in painting some exercises as dangerous, others as benevolent.

For Indian security planners, the objective of the Sino-Russian exercises in Central Asia is more important than the fact that it is taking place. Although 8220;counter-terrorism8221; has been billed as the main aim of Peace Mission 2007, analysts point to the large scale involvement of air power and the emphasis on rapid deployment of military force.

The fielding of helicopters, fighter jets and transport planes, along with paratroopers from Russia and China suggests the demonstration of interventionary capabilities. The exercise appears to be another step towards the creation of collective defence arrangements for Central Asia under the aegis of Beijing and Moscow.

Bishkek summit

The joint military maneouvres which started out in Xinjiang in Chinese Central Asia last week will conclude this week in Russia8217;s Ural mountains. Meanwhile, leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, are gathering in Bishkek for the annual summit at the end of which they will fly out to witness the final phase of Peace Mission 2007 in Russia.

If you think only the big powers manipulate the smaller ones, think again. The jockeying for influence among Washington, Moscow and Beijing in Central Asia has given unprecedented options for the wily leaders of Central Asia.

Take, for example, Kyrgyzstan which is hosting this year8217;s SCO summit. For all the new found political enthusiasm for China, Kyrgyzstan has made no effort to evict the US armed forces from their base in Manas. Recall that in its 2005 summit, the SCO had called on the US forces to withdraw from Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan also has a Russian military base on its soil.

A couple of months ago, an employee of the Kyrgyz Parliament was arrested on charges of spying for China. Some say it was a plot by Washington to undermine China8217;s influence in Kyrgyzstan. Whatever the truth might be, the Central Asian leaders are rapidly figuring out the art of playing all sides of the new Great Game.

India in the cold?

Some Indian analysts are too anxious about the seemingly unstoppable advances China is making in Central Asia, a region New Delhi has traditionally considered an important part of its extended neighbourhood. Others, especially on the Left, want India to align with China and Russia in building a new block against the US.

Fortunately New Delhi is conscious of its geographic and other limitations in Central Asia. Not having direct physical access to Central Asian states, India is not in a position to match either the influence of China, which shares a long border with three Central Asian states or the historic Russian primacy in the region. India also does not have the resources of the US to generate a high strategic profile.

It makes sense for India to set itself modest objectives in Central Asia and assist the Central Asian leaders in their search for greater autonomy. It would also be reasonable to assume small countries don8217;t usually love their large neighbours and would always want to create a bit of space for themselves.

Not surprisingly then, New Delhi is not losing sleep over the fact that it is not a full member of the SCO. Unlike the other observer states to the SCO 8212; Pakistan, Iran and Mongoli 8212; India has chosen to maintain some political distance from the ambitious goals Beijing and Moscow have for the organisation. For the second year in a row, India will be represented at the SCO summit by its petroleum minister, Murli Deora.

The writer is professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore