Calling Putin146;s Russia

Organised crime poses a serious challenge to Russia8217;s rulers today. When the Soviet Union collapsed, yesterday8217;s Communist Party apparatchiks became the 8216;oligarchs8217; of the new capitalist order. While unemployment remains high, there is very little support or nostalgia for the Soviet days. Lacking a coherent ideological appeal, Russia8217;s Communists are steadily losing support. Russians now see the United States as their new Mecca. At the same time, there is scepticism about American intentions and criticism of American oriented reformers of the Yeltsin years, for leading the Russian people to near economic disaster. But there is hope that President Putin, whose image remains untainted by any allegations of corruption, will provide direction and drive in moving Russia towards a genuine market economy, freeing its people from the clutches of those who manipulated economic decision-making for personal benefit over the past decade.

Russians recognise that they have the human talent and natural resources to join the ranks of prosperous nations. The economy is recovering. It grew at 5 per cent last year, with a projected growth of 4 per cent this year. With oil production at 6.8 million barrels per day and oil exports of around 3.4 million barrels per day, Russia is today the second largest exporter of oil in the world. It is also a major player in the production and export of natural gas. President Putin knows that with growing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, Russia has the potential to emerge as a significant player in the world oil scene. The Russians are now actively engaging the US in a wide-ranging dialogue on global energy supplies. They hope to progressively enter the American market in this sphere. They are keeping their options open on the future course of events in Iraq. They also know that the EU has to come to terms with the reality of growing energy dependence on them. Thus, like the Chinese, the Russians attach the highest importance to their ties with the US. This is a reality that Indians must recognise, amid all the hype about trilateral cooperation between India, China and Russia.

The most significant challenge that Russia faces today arises from separatism in the garb of jihad in Caucasian regions like Chechnya and Dagestan. With central authority crumbling after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the traditionally rebellious Chechens sought independence from Moscow, under the leadership of a Red Army major general, Jokhar Dudaev. The entire situation was handled ineptly, both politically and militarily, by the Yeltsin dispensation. The ensuing civil war resulted in over 100,000 Chechens being forced from their homes. Like the Pandits in Kashmir, over 230,000 Russians became refugees in their own country. By 1993, Saudi Arabia was actively funding and encouraging Wahabi fundamentalism throughout the Caucasus, in much the same manner as it was doing in Central Asia.

India8217;s cooperation with Russia in dealing with global terrorism has to be seen in the context of these developments. Shamil Basaev, a Chechen field commander, took charge of field operations in the Caucasus at around the same time that the Taliban was coming to power in Afghanistan, with ISI and Saudi Arabian support. Close links were soon established between the Taliban, the ISI and the Saudis on the one hand and Chechens like Basaev, bent on creating an Islamic Caliphate in the Caucasus on the other. Chechen terrorists received military training and ideological indoctrination in Ahkhora Khattak in Pakistan8217;s North West Frontier Province NWFP. The self-styled 8216;president8217; of Chechnya, Zelmikhan Yandarbaev, visited Pakistan in 2000. Leaders of the MMA, who are now in positions of influence in the NWFP and Baluchistan, feted him amid calls for jihad. Russian scholars assert that some of the field commanders in Chechnya even today are Arabs or Pakistanis. It is for this reason that while the Americans seem to believe that they can afford the luxury of looking the other way, as General Musharraf unleashes his jihadis across India, the Russians cannot ignore the links that Chechen and other terrorists have developed in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Americans can, in time, declare victory and pull out of Afghanistan. India and Russia will then have to pick up the pieces.

India will have to fashion strategies to deal with the new Russia. Sadly, Indians are either nostalgic for the sort of relationship that we enjoyed with the Soviet Union, or given to believing that, in the long-term, relations with Russia are not of any significance. With the Russians themselves tending to decry the foreign policies that the Soviet leaders espoused, the former approach is unrealistic and the latter, diplomatically shortsighted. Russia will remain a key partner in not only fighting global terrorism bilaterally, but also regionally and internationally. The defence relationship with Moscow is set to grow. Apart from acquiring ships, submarines, aircraft and artillery from Moscow, we need to develop areas of cooperation in joint research and development of new weapons systems, like cruise missiles and advanced fighter aircraft. There is also need for introspection about why our annual bilateral trade with Russia is barely 1.4 billion and that of China 10.6 billion. New Delhi8217;s 8216;strategic partnership8217; with Moscow will be more meaningful only when trade and investment ties acquire substantially larger dimensions.

The writer is a former ambassador