Bytes have changed, so has the LTTE146;s bite

Noted is the change from combat fatigues, military moustache over a rough tan and, belted Browning automatic pistol to grey safari suit, smooth-shaven, paler, chubbier cheeks, and pen in tunic pocket instead of the sidearm.

For media analysts, this change of appearance is in line with what they see as the general shift of the LTTE itself from a politico-military organisation to a civilian-political one. Prabhakaran8217;s change of appearance began about three years ago and seems to have coincided with the change in attitude of the international community towards his organisation.

It was when the LTTE unilaterally broke the 1994-95 ceasefire it concluded with the Government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga that wold opinion began to shift away from the Tigers8217; previous acceptance as a 8216;8216;liberation movement8217;8217; rather than a terroristic, undemocratic force. After the subsequent attack on Sri Lankan Buddhism8217;s most holy 8216;Temple of the Tooth8217; in Kandy and, after it rejected Colombo8217;s offer of the most generous political solution package to date, the weight of world opinion drastically shifted away from the LTTE.

The decision by the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and Canada to ban the LTTE followed and the Tigers8217; and Prabhakaran8217;s illegitimacy seemed complete. That was when Prabhakaran8217;s used his birthday speech, which is made in celebration of 8216;Martyr8217;s Day8217;, to suggest a compromise on the Tigers8217; goal of a separate State of 8216;Eelam8217; if Colombo offered a reasonable alternative.

Not only did the LTTE soften its political stand but Prabhakaran and his top colleagues began to soften their warlike image and don civils. Even though its apologists would deny it 8212; and Prabhakaran himself did so on Wednesday 8212; most analysts agree that the LTTE8217;s softened stance grew even softer after the anti-terrorism campaign launched by the United States following the September 11 tragedy.

Colombo, meanwhile, has continued to learn from its past mistakes, albeit in fits and starts, and at a slow pace that has been costly in terms of human suffering and social dislocation. When the political package offered by the Kumaratunga regime only served to provoke rage among Sinhala hardliners, the subsequently elected United National Party-led coalition government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, changed tactics and with success.

All the concessions that the LTTE had demanded as 8216;pre-requisites8217; for substantive negotiations, the new government promptly granted the moment the LTTE declared a cease-fire last December. If that was not enough, the conclusion of the Norwegian-brokered ceasefire agreement has seen such a profound transformation of the country8217;s political-strategic situation that the Sinhala hardliners opposed to peace and ethnic equality are yet gasping in surprise.

In fact, it is the outcome of this combination of sweeping security concessions and the ceasefire agreement that left nothing very new for Prabhakaran to say on Wednesday. The 2002 ceasefire agreement has virtually recognised LTTE supremacy over the areas it controls. The forces of both sides will remain frozen in their positions and when the team of cease-fire monitors from Scandinavian countries begin formalising the lines of control, the de facto semi-partition becomes complete.

Furthermore, the government has implicitly acknowledged the LTTE8217;s exclusive right to undertake political organisational activities in other areas of the Tamil population-dominated Northern and Eastern provinces, including all zones currently held by the government. Already 8216;political offices8217; of the yet proscribed LTTE are being opened with much fanfare and raising of Eelam flags in various parts of the North and East.

At Kilinochchi, the emboldened Tigers insisted not only that they be de-proscribed prior to the direct Government-LTTE talks planned for May in Thailand, but also that the main subject of discussion should be how they would take exclusive control of an 8216;interim administration8217; for the combined North-East region. If things do get that far, and it is too early say yet, then Prabhakaran8217;s Tigers would be at the head of an informal and interim near-confederal structure administering a region that they may even dare to call 8216;Eelam8217;!

But neither the calls for de-proscription nor the prioritising of an interim structure are new. They are part of the LTTE8217;s long-stated agenda for peace and Colombo has already hinted that it is on the verge of granting both. Even the previous regime of the People8217;s Alliance headed by Kumaratunga had indicated a readiness to grant an LTTE-headed interim command structure. In fact, one time frame suggested was for as long as a decade.

No wonder Prabhakaran, chief negotiator and ideologue Anton Stanislaus Balasingham, political wing Leader Thamil Chelvam and the rest could spontaneously smile and posture in front of the world8217;s sensation-hungry media on Wednesday. The voluble Balasingham, at one point, could not resist declaring: 8216;8216;Ranil Wickremesinghe is prime minister of those who elected him and Mr Prabhakaran is both President and Prime Minister of the North-East!8217;8217; While such bombast will surely provoke unease among the Sinhalese majority, the lengthy and tragic flow of events on this island yet compels a mass sense of resignation over the future scenario of an uncertain peace and an uncertain, ad hoc, new political configuration.The peace is explicit, however, while the political configuration remains more implicit and de facto.

For Prabhakaran and associates, however, it is only a partial victory, given the constraints of the new global geo-politics under America8217;s policing. Already, blunt warnings about good behaviour have come, direct from Washington as well as from its ambassador in Colombo.

But while a totally free, separate Eelam seems even more remote today than before, the LTTE and the Tamil people could be poised to enjoy a state of near sovereignty. The process, though, from the interim to the permanent and from the authoritarian to the democratic may be long and tortuous.

Lakshman Gunasekara, a senior journalist and activist on social justice and peace issues, is currently editor of the Sunday Observer in Sri Lanka