Articles of contention

Tools and rules

In anticipation of these developments, Shamim-ur-Rahman asked in Dawn Magazine whether, given the court8217;s 8220;role in democratisation of the polity8221;, one could consider buried the doctrine of necessity.

In The Friday Times September 7-13, Moeed Yusuf posed a similar question in a larger context: 8220;Is it possible to predict Pakistan8217;s political situation? Short answer: no. Question: why? The inability to predict the political future accurately is a result of the anarchic context in which Pakistan8217;s political system functions. A political expert depends on certain 8216;tools8217; to analyse a situation. But for the tools to be employed, one needs a structured context: clearly defined 8216;rules of the game8217; and stated preferences of the 8216;players8217; are necessary pieces of information. In the current Pakistani scenario, the spectrum of possibilities is unlimited and the rules of the game keep changing, altered by a single individual, the president, as the game progresses. This is a situation where one can never rule out that the possibility of the 8216;ruler8217; packing up the entire 8216;game8217;. Add to this the potential of political and other relevant actors to make an about-face on their stated preferences and all one can hope for are 8216;informed conjectures8217; that inevitably carry a high error probability. The most one can achieve with any degree of confidence is to simply present key facts and variables in the equation, and narrow down the potential outcomes.8221;

Enigma of return

Those potential outcomes will depend critically on Nawaz Sharif8217;s proposed return to Pakistan next week. And on how the government responds. As Najam Sethi wrote in his Friday Times editorial: 8220;With the Supreme Court breathing down his neck, the last thing General Musharraf wants is Nawaz Sharif rampaging down the GT road in an unending bus caravan and giving the PMLQ leaders a heart attack.8221; Sharif plans to arrive in Islamabad by air, and then drive down to

Lahore, reminiscent of the chief justice8217;s long journey down that same road a few months ago.

On Thursday, Daily Times cited a Geo TV report to say: 8220;The government will arrest Nawaz Sharif and his brother, former Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, from the Islamabad airport on September 10 when they are scheduled to return to Pakistan and keep them in Attock jail.8221; A day later it quoted sources: 8220;The interior ministry has directed all the provincial inspectors general of police, intelligence agencies and home departments to provide details of the cases against Nawaz and Shahbaz before September 10.8221; And: PMLQ Secretary General Mushahid Hussain8217;s contention that 8220;former US President Bill Clinton was behind Sharif8217;s deal with the Pakistani government on exile, while Qatar, Lebanon and Saudi

Arabia made a consortium and guaranteed the deal would be respected8221;.

In turn, Sharif 8220;said on Wednesday that he was in contact with the Saudi king and had conveyed his sentiments on his decision to return to Pakistan to the Saudi administration8221; DT, September 6. A day earlier a Saudi spokesperson had asked the Sharifs to honour the ten-year exile from Pakistani politics.

West of Rawalpindi

On Tuesday, two bomb blasts in Rawalpindi8217;s cantonment area killed 24 people. In an editorial on Wednesday, Daily Times noted: 8220;There should be no difficulty in joining the dots here. The security agencies are being targeted by the Al Qaeda deputy Baitullah Mehsud, who today rules in South Waziristan and has established authority there as a deputy of Osama bin Laden, based on a complete taxation system and provision of services in a territory separated from Pakistan and annexed to Al Qaeda.8221;