Acid test for AGP

In the coming polls, the Mahanta Government8217;s major concern would be winning over a population alienated by its decision to bring back the Army to fight militancy. For, the Congress is weak without the late Hiteswar Saikia and the BJP is weaker still with the death of its lone MP, D.N. Das.

Mahanta8217;s government is only 18 months old, the party itself 12 years. The AGP had started its rule in Assam from a position of strength, winning seven out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats it contested in 1985. But, it sat out the 1991-1996 period in the Opposition, managing only one seat in the polls. At the hustings next year, it will have to answer for its record on development: though Mahanta had joined the United Front and got the Centre to sanction a Rs-7,745 crore economic package for the State, precious little has been done.

The AGP has also gone back on its promise to keep the Army in the barracks and there have been numerous complaints of human rights abuses by them. This would be another major poll issue.

The All Assam Students8217; Union AASU has also raked up the electoral rolls controversy again, complaining that large numbers of Bangladeshis have re-enrolled themselves as voters in the state, courtesy a new guideline of the Election Commission. The Bangladeshis, it holds, might jeopardise the political future of the quot;indigenousquot; people and it is certain to put this question to the AGP-led government.

The United Liberation Front of Assam ULFA, which remained quot;neutralquot; in 1991 and indirectly helped the Congress win, has now asked the people to vote for any party demanding the right to self-determination. The AGP had this point in its manifesto in the last elections.

On the plus side, the AGP8217;s alliance with the CPI, CPIM and the United People8217;s Party of Assam has been steady and lasting. It was forged before the last polls and the only minor hiccup it had was a few months ago when the Autonomous State Demand Committee ASDC pulled out complaining the AGP-led Government was following anti-tribal policies. The support-base of the AGP and its allies has also remained intact. The threat it faced from the suspended state home minister, Bhrigu Kumar Phukhan, floating his own party, has also not materialised as Bhrigu8217;s party has not seen the light of day.

But, the alliance might do well to remember that the Congress 8212; which had tied with it at five seats each in 1996 8212; was voted out in the same year over the issue of large-scale corruption. That could dog the alliance8217;s heel as several AGP leaders have figured in CBI probe reports on the multi-crore Letters of Credit scandal. However, on this issue the Congress continues to be at the receiving end. It is still waiting for the outcome of the CBI probe into the scandal, hoping against hope that Mahanta would be indicted. Internally, it is riven by factionalism: Matang Singh and his followers have been working against state party chief Tarun Gogoi, who is himself seen as incapable of taking on the AGP. Come time to select its candidates, the infighting is likely to intensify. The only saving grace for the Congress might be that in 1998 voters may be less eager to show their contempt. They had done so in the 1996 polls perhaps because then the Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections had been held simultaneously.

Only one party remains out of focus in the poll scene 8212; the BJP. It8217;s a relatively smaller entity here and its past attempts at making inroads into the Assamese mainstream have met with defeat. The Bengali-speaking Barak Valley, where it had won nine Assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat in 1991, has also become a weaker base since the return of Congress stalwart Santosh Mohan Dev from Tripura in 1996 the year, the BJP was wiped out from the Barak Valley.