A passage to India

Sending the wrong signal on nuclear weapons is not the only potential pitfall in America8217;s romance with India. Mr Bush should also be wary of sending the wrong signal about America8217;s intentions towards China. Too often when Indian-American relations are discussed in Washington, the notion is invoked that India might somehow turn out to be a 8220;counterweight8221; to China. Yet it is hard to see, in practical terms, what sort of counterweight India could actually be. On the contrary, that sort of talk is liable only to reinforce China8217;s fear that America8217;s grand strategic design is to encircle it and block its rise as a great power. That fear has already been strengthened by America8217;s recent transfer of some of its military might from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

The United States should not base its Asian strategy on that sort of balance-of-power diplomacy. Apart from anything else, India is far too canny, and cares too much about its own China relationship, to be drawn into such a game. Instead of encircling China, Mr Bush should concentrate on putting the American relationship with it on the right footing: deeper engagement, coupled with a determination to make China play by the rules. Yet Mr Bush8217;s approach to this rising superpower has sometimes seemed almost casual: Hu Jintao, China8217;s president, had been made to wait far too long for his state visit to Washington even before Hurricane Katrina forced him to cancel a visit last August. And Mr Bush has not worked hard enough at home to make the free-trade case against the protectionist hawks gunning for China though, to be fair to him, he has not given them much comfort either.

Mr Bush must also take care to ensure that friendship with India does not damage his close ties to Pakistan, another American ally the president intends to visit on this trip. Pakistan is infinitely more fragile than India, but right now of much greater strategic significance to America. It is central to the fight against the remnants of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. On top of that, it has an awful record of selling by unauthorised freelancers, claims its government nuclear-weapons technology on the open market. Pakistan8217;s president, Pervez Musharraf, has lately shown signs of flexibility towards his country8217;s long and dangerous dispute with India over Kashmir. But both countries need to show flexibility on Kashmir, and Mr Bush must take care not to tilt so far India8217;s way that the Indians feel under no pressure to make concessions of their own. That will merely weaken Mr Musharraf and enfeeble a valuable American ally8230;

Excerpted from an editorial comment in 8216;The Economist8217;, February 23