A desperate gamble

Rashtriya Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav's volte-face on the division of Bihar may have shocked some. Specially after his aggres...

Rashtriya Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav8217;s volte-face on the division of Bihar may have shocked some. Specially after his aggressive advocacy of the Jharkhand cause in the Bihar Assembly just a year back, when he got a resolution for the bifurcation of the state passed to placate the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha Soren supporting his minority government.

But those who have observed his antics in the past know that it would be naive to take what he says or does at its face value. His outburst that 8220;Vananchal will be created over my dead body8221; should, therefore, be taken with a pinch of salt. It sounds like a desperate bid for self-survival. Knowing that the dismissal of the government headed by his loyal wife Rabri Devi is on the cards, Yadav has cunningly crafted the stratagem to counter the move.

Laloo Yadav8217;s plea that the last year8217;s Assembly resolution envisaged a Greater Jharkhand8217; comprising 26 districts of Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh is far from convincing. His accusationthat the Centre8217;s move to create Vananchal was part of an RSS conspiracy to reduce south Bihar into a colony and throw the north and central Bihar into penury does not carry conviction. But then logical consistency has never been his forte.

In a way, he is doing what his Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha elder brother8217;, Mulayam Singh Yadav, has done by opposing the carving of Uttaranchal out of UP despite having got a resolution for the creation of the state passed in the UP Assembly during his dispensation. Laloo Yadav8217;s timing is perfect. A special session of the Assembly is scheduled to discuss the draft Bill for creation of the Vananchal state on September 18.

This gives him an opportunity to change the nature of the political discourse at a time when his leadership faces a threat. By projecting the move to bifurcate Bihar as an insult to its honour8217;, he finds a new cause to deflect public attention from the misdeeds of the RJD regime.

It8217;s tight-rope walking and the Chief Minister8217;s husband knows this.His change of stance has already alienated his JMM supporters. It could also lend strength to the lobby within the Congress clamouring for withdrawal of the party8217;s support to the government. The fact that Sonia Gandhi had herself publicly espoused the cause of Jharkhand during the last elections will make it difficult for the Congress leadership to resist this lobby.

Despite this, Yadav has opted for the desperate gamble after calculating the risks. He knows that he has nothing to lose except his government, which any way is facing a threat from the BJP-led coalition. So he has decided to go down fighting. He hopes to strike a sympathetic chord among the people of north and central Bihar 8212; in any case the RJD does not enjoy much political support in south Bihar. And if the Centre dares to dismiss the government, the stage is set for Yadav to project himself as a martyr who sacrificed his raj fighting for the integrity of 8220;my beloved Bihar8221;.