2008: the next space odyssey

It was with a sense of pride, accomplishment and some humility that the US Navy announced with a confidence level...

It was with a sense of pride, accomplishment and some humility that the US Navy announced with a confidence level as high as 8216;80 to 90 per cent8217; that its missile interceptor has successfully struck a dying spy satellite orbiting 130 miles over the Pacific Ocean. The ostensible reason for wanting to shoot down this errant spy satellite the size of a bus was the danger of its tumbling down to earth with the prospect of releasing harmful gases around the point of impact. The aim was to rupture the tank filled with toxic rocket fuel before it enters the atmosphere, disperse the hydrazine and smash the satellite into pieces that would fall and burn easily.

Only the really naive, however, would refuse to acknowledge the real feat that the US military has been able to accomplish. With this missile strike the US has categorically signalled that its missile defences can be used to counter strategic anti-satellite weapons. An interceptor designed for missile defence was used for the first time to attack a satellite, demonstrating how the emerging missile defence arsenal could be reprogrammed to counter an unexpected threat. This will no doubt strengthen the hands of the supporters of the missile defence system in which the US has already invested more than 57 billion.

China tested its anti-satellite weapons by shooting down one of its own satellites last year as part of its overarching strategy designed to counter the overall military capability of the US. Suggestions have already been made that the US should start investing in inoffensive counter-space capabilities. Not surprisingly, China has reacted strongly to the US missile strike and has asked the US to share data about the passage of the remnants of the satellite.

It is also instructive that this strike by the US comes days after China and Russia proposed a global pact banning weapons in space as well as rising Russian opposition to the US placement of missile defence interceptors in Eastern Europe. The US has opposed this treaty arguing that the proposed draft is largely directed only at the US military technology as it allows China and Russia to fire ground-based missiles into space or use satellites as weapons of war. There is also reluctance on the part of China and Russia on clearly defining a space weapon as they too want to keep their options open.

The present US administration has tacitly asserted the US right to space weapons and continued to oppose measures restricting them. Any arms control regime in outer space would constrain US military options.

Though the US is at pains to deny that the latest strike was a show of strength aimed at the Chinese and the Russians, it underlines the growing sophistication of the US missile defence technology. Some might argue that the latest US action will give an excuse to the Chinese and the Russians to develop and test comparable capabilities. The reality is China and Russia are already well advanced in their efforts to counter US predominance of space. China, in particular, views space weapons including anti-missile satellites as part of its strategy intended to keep US forces at bay in a war over Taiwan.

Space is increasingly emerging as the most likely frontier for the next conflict 8212; or at least arms race 8212; and is now viewed as a critical element of national security. Space exploitation and control have evolved to impact more than just the military8217;s ability to carry out its missile and has become increasingly central to the economy. Given its considerable utility and immense commercial potential, it will also become an important target for those who wish to counter US influence and prosperity. The dependence of the US and the Western world on space-based capabilities and their growing vulnerability implies that the weaponisation of space is all but inevitable. Moreover, the underlying logic of global politics will make sure that US technological and military monopoly in space will not endure for long.

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India needs to realise that whether it likes it or not, the arms race in outer space has already begun. A national space policy should, therefore, be a top priority of the Indian government.

The writer teaches at King8217;s College, London harsh.pantkcl.ac.uk