J&K: Govt to rethink phone restoration if security situation worsens

“The opening of phone lines is being done based on the assessment that nothing much has happened in the last one month after restrictions were eased. The situation will be reassessed and if it is felt that it (restoring connectivity) has worsened the security situation, the decision will be revoked,” said a J&K administration official.

Estimates with the security establishment suggest there are currently around 350 terrorists in the Valley. The security establishment in Kashmir is already anticipating the possibility of a major terror attack in the Valley given that close to 90 foreign militants are estimated to have infiltrated the region since August 5, when Home Minister Amit Shah announced abrogation of Article 370.

“These mlitants have largely remained silent till now. But it may not remain so for long,” said an officer involved with monitoring of militant activity in the Valley.

Security agencies believe Pakistan has deliberately reined in its operatives due to the sword of FATF blacklisting hanging over it, hoping instead for a spontaneous and violent public unrest in the Valley. “Once the FATF threat is over, Pakistan may make some moves,” the official said.

The FATF plenary meeting ends on October 15. Pakistan, already grey-listed, has been trying to convince the world that it is committed to cracking down on terror financing in a bid to get out of the financial restrictions that the listing imposes.

So far since August 5, the Valley has seen very little violence, with incidents of militant attacks or encounters less than half a dozen — a situation counter-intuitive for Kashmir. For instance, after the 2012 hanging of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, while no major public unrest was seen, within 40 days, the Jaish-e-Mohammed launched a major attack on a CRPF camp in Bemina.

“There are many reasons why this has not happened this time. The communication shutdown has affected the communication between militants, their logistics providers and their handlers as well. Then, reined by the FATF, Pakistan had been hoping for a violent public unrest that would force the world to take note. But since none of this is working, there is a likelihood that Pakistan will fall back on its old tactic of militant attacks,” said another official.